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How to work out bluff EV

    • adamall
      Joined: 03.02.2009 Posts: 178
      Ok so I want to learn how to work out whether a bluff is a plus EV decision.

      Here is a hand we can use as an example.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      PL Omaha $0.05(BB) Replayer
      SB ($12.79)
      BB ($9.74)
      UTG ($5.27)
      UTG+1 ($5.54)
      CO ($5)
      Hero ($5)

      Dealt to Hero T:heart: J:heart: Q:club: T:diamond:

      UTG raises to $0.15, UTG+1 calls $0.15, CO calls $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.67) 7:spade: 3:heart: 7:diamond:

      UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $0.05, CO raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1.15, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, CO raises to $4.14, Hero folds

      CO wins $2.88

      So i decide this is a good board for my opponent to cbet, and he normally cbets larger than this. I figure it is most likely that he is bluffing.

      How do I take this information and calculate the EV of my bluff?

      What do I need to consider?


  • 3 replies
    • Kyyberi
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,158
      To be able to calculate the EV for bluff, you need to estimate how big is your folding equity. And as you can't never be sure, it's always just an estimation.

      In your example you are investing $1.15 to win $1.02. So you need to get all 3 opponents to fold at least 53% of time. If you count rake, it's higher. If you think that you will get folds 60% of time, your estimated EV is 7% of the pot.

      That's why it is so important to bluff with hands that have some equity. Even backdoor stuff is useful, it increases your EV when opponents just call your bluff.

      Btw, in your example that is horrible spot to bluff, as there has been raise before you. :)
    • Chriffan
      Joined: 21.08.2011 Posts: 174
      WOW, that's a horrible hand!
      In a 4-way pot with that flop, you really shouldn't raise nor bet.

      Make sure there isn't any straight draw or flush draw out (then the probably will fold to a c-bet)
      If there is a draw thich misses on turn, make sure to second barrel full pot size.
      If there is a completed draw on flop bet 2/3 pot.
      If a draw hit on turn and your opponent cold call your bet on flop, don't bet.

      That's some basics, and i can promise you will be ev+ bluffing on the lower limits (just make sure there isn't some maniac or similiar at your table).
    • adamall
      Joined: 03.02.2009 Posts: 178
      wow estimating % of folds is tough, especially in Omaha.

      As for the hand it was a read specific scenario, i think my opponent worked out what i was doing by this time (he may have had the hand as well :D )