[NL2-NL10] nl4 6max 9h8h river thin value?

    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $4,13
      BB:
      $4,35
      MP2:
      $5,64
      MP3:
      $0,87
      Hero:
      $4,65
      BU:
      $8,14

      0,02/0,04 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.105 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 9:heart: , 8:heart:
      MP2 calls $0,04, MP3 calls $0,04, Hero calls $0,04, 2 folds, BB checks.

      Flop: ($0,18) J:club: , T:heart: , 7:heart: (4 players)
      BB checks, MP2 bets $0,09, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $0,28, BB folds, MP2 calls $0,19.

      Turn: ($0,74) Q:club: (2 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero bets $0,47, MP2 calls $0,47.

      River: ($1,68) A:diamond: (2 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero ?
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello sausage646,

      I would most likely even raise it bigger on the flop ~$0,45 which is pot size. If he has a hand he is willing to pay you anyways. The same most likely goes for the turn and Bet a bit bigger.

      But as played on the river you wont get value from a lot worse hands anyways, so I'd just Check it behind and skip the value.

      Best Regards.
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      ATs,KJs-KTs,QTs+,JTs,T7s,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,ATo,KJo-KTo,QJo,JTo - 39,34 % ( from his range - 52,5 % 2pair / 39,3 % straight / 8,2 % one pair)

      9h8h - 60,66 %

      since he have 31% wts it's really possible than we are getting value from his 2 pair hands and Ah2h-Ah9h and losing to other 50% of his range.
      + he is not that aggressive to pull out a massive river check raise bluff whit air.

      isn't this spot for thin value?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by sausage646
      ATs,KJs-KTs,QTs+,JTs,T7s,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,ATo,KJo-KTo,QJo,JTo - 39,34 % ( from his range - 52,5 % 2pair / 39,3 % straight / 8,2 % one pair)

      9h8h - 60,66 %

      since he have 31% wts it's really possible than we are getting value from his 2 pair hands and Ah2h-Ah9h and losing to other 50% of his range.
      + he is not that aggressive to pull out a massive river check raise bluff whit air.

      isn't this spot for thin value?
      You didn't want to ship your 2nd nut-flush but you still want to pick such thin spots. :P

      You get the point that he has a lot of Kx hands in his range which you didn't point out at all and most of the hands you have there wont ever even call.

      Also you excluded so many Kx hands. :( So my prediction would be:

      Board: J:club: T:heart: 7:heart:  Q:club:  A:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    65.45%  65.45%   0.00% { ATs, KTs+, QJs, JTs, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah6h, ATo, KTo+, QhJd, QhJs, QhJc, QsJd, QsJh, QcJh }
      UTG+1  34.55%  34.55%   0.00% { 9h8h }

      And maybe even would remove more hands and not add everything. :)