[NL2-NL10] nl4 6max QQ on JT9

    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $4
      BB:
      $1,89
      MP3:
      $1,43
      CO:
      $5,63
      BU:
      $1,92

      0,02/0,04 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.105 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with Q:heart: , Q:club:
      MP3 folds, CO raises to $0,24, BU folds, Hero raises to $0,68, BB folds, CO calls $0,44.

      Flop: ($1,40) J:spade: , T:diamond: , 9:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0,78, CO raises to $4,95 (All-In), Hero ?

      (on 3bet fold 0%)

      how big c bet size should I use ?
      and what to do on blank turn ?
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello sausage646,

      Bet/Fold the flop, you ain't good there anyways and neither your equity isn't going to to good vs made hands.

      About turn: That's what we should already ask on the flop what we should take, cause Bet/Folding is most likely the line what we take. Shouldn't we maybe even taking Check/Call while having OESD and some improvement possibilities.

      Best Regards.
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      QhQc - 44,45%
      JJ- 88,AQs,KQs,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,87s,AsKs,AsJs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,
      As4s,As3s,As2s,AQo,KQo - 55,55%

      39,19% needed
      [+ I didn't counted AJ and some AK combos]
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by sausage646
      QhQc - 44,45%
      JJ- 88,AQs,KQs,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,87s,AsKs,AsJs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,
      As4s,As3s,As2s,AQo,KQo - 55,55%

      39,19% needed
      [+ I didn't counted AJ and some AK combos]
      The problem here is that you have on the guy only 30 hands and can we really expect all the hands to be true here? Something like AK/AT definitely possible but lower ones he is even getting really good odds with FD so most likely he wouldn't even shove.

      Also if we would take into account the stats then we should also take a look at his W$SD which tells us that he has been winning most of the showdowns. Of course that may be just several situation but that doesn't give us the possibility to put him on a range here either.

      Why didn't you put KQo for example? Not all combos but they are still possible. I'd expect something similar:

      Board: J:spade: T:diamond: 9:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    66.66%  63.63%   3.03% { JJ-99, AQs, KQs, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 87s, AsKs, AsTs, KQo }
      UTG+1  33.34%  30.31%   3.03% { QhQc }

      With your expectations of course we could play for the stacks but even with those we are pretty much break-even. :P
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      Originally posted by veriz
      Why didn't you put KQo for example? Not all combos but they are still possible.
      well I did
      Originally posted by sausage646
      QhQc - 44,45%
      JJ- 88,AQs,KQs,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,87s,AsKs,AsJs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,
      As4s,As3s,As2s,AQo,KQo - 55,55%

      39,19% needed
      [+ I didn't counted AJ and some AK combos]
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Somehow when I pasted the range of yours it didn't put that hand, interesting but as you see I got whole different equity.