[NL2-NL10] Overpair calling short stack All In on Flop

    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      BTN: $3.78 (37.8 bb) 23/8/1.4/10.0/53
      SB: $10 (100 bb)
      BB: $10 (100 bb)
      UTG: $11.13 (111.3 bb)
      Hero (MP): $9.20 (92 bb)
      CO: $10.10 (101 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with A A
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.40, CO folds, BTN calls $0.40, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.95) 2 8 T (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.60, BTN raises to $3.38 and is all-in, Hero calls $2.78

      Against a small stack in such a situation is it wise to make a call with an overpair?

      Turn: ($7.71) J (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($7.71) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results: $7.71 pot ($0.35 rake)
      Final Board: 2 8 T J 8
      BTN showed T T and won $7.36 ($3.58 net)
      Hero showed A A and lost (-$3.78 net)




      Board: 2:club: 8:club: T:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP1    48.74%  48.74%   0.00% { AdAs }
      MP2    51.26%  51.26%   0.00% { TT, 88, 22, J9s, KcAc, QcAc, JcAc, TcAc, 9cAc, 8cAc, 7cAc, 6cAc, 5cAc, 4cAc, 3cAc, 2cAc, J9o }



      Am I putting him on the right range?
  • 4 replies
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Against a small stack in such a situation is it wise to make a call with an overpair?

      He's not a small stack but a medium stack with ~40BB.

      I didn't quite get his stats. Is 1.4 AF? Then 10.0 is 3bet?

      If that's the case I'd play nit and fold. I'd expect him to 3bet pre with JJ/QQ. He's lower AF might point us to the fact that he'd prefer to call with draws than to shove flop with them. Then again, it's a small sample, but even he's preflop stats (gap between PFR and VPIP) points to the fact that he's rather a bad/passive and not aggressive at all.

      Equity-wise, I know we play against ranges but I like to think on "best case scenarios" as well. I think our "best case scenario" here is he has a hand like K :club: Q :club: or A :club: Q :club: . We only have 60/40 against those hands.

      Worse case scenario, against TT we have 8%.

      Am I putting him on the right range?

      You might. He's preflop range seems pretty wide so he might find himself on the flop with all that crap. However, I don't think we can assume he's shoving all that.

      If we put him only on very strong draws and sets, we're crushed:


      Board: T:diamond: 8:club: 2:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    15.89%  15.89%   0.00% { AdAs }
      MP3    84.11%  84.11%   0.00% { TT, 88, 22, QcJc, Jc9c }


      So ee have to put him on A :club: x :club: to make it slightly profitable. If he is shoving J9o we have a profitable call, and we get even more equity if he is shoving T8.

      Against an unknown I think I'd call; against this guy it gets tougher and depends on our reads. Based on these stats only I'm leaning towards a fold.

      Bottom line is: If my calculations are correct, we need 1:2.7 odds to call - or 27%. In most cases we will probably be better than that and could indeed call profitably or at least b/e. Against the more passive guys that would call there with almost whole range and would just raise the nuts we should find a fold.

      ps: and why don't you have 100bb yourself?
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      I didn't quite get his stats. Is 1.4 AF? Then 10.0 is 3bet?
      Yup those are his stats. He 3-Bets 10% and his AF is indeed 1.4. I guess his shove should be taken seriously and I guess you're right that he wouldn't be shoving all of what I put him on.

      Against the more passive guys that would call there with almost whole range and would just raise the nuts we should find a fold.
      I guess I should have realized that he'd only be raising the nuts by what his passive stats say.

      ps: and why don't you have 100bb yourself?
      I'd lost 8 blinds in the hand before this and the re-buyin was gonna complete right after this hand.
    • luizsilveira
      luizsilveira
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      [...]
      Cool :)

      I wouldn't be too prone to rely on stats only, especially on that short a sample. It's really important to observe the players - in this case, it would be pretty good to know if he was raising cbets often or not and, if so, with what hands etc.

      'cause even the 3bet... I'm assuming he'd 3bet JJ pre, but that can be wrong... you have 10% 3bet on him but it's probably 1/10 opportunities (in that case he might have had a monster ofc).
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello maheepsangari,

      Snap-Call for me, don't be result oriented! He has a lot of draws and Tx hands in his calling range preflop. His gap between VPIP/PFR tells us the whole story about him definitely having Tx hands. I would even bet the flop bigger and then Call off.

      Best Regards.