[NL2-NL10] NL10 8Ts SH

    • ferdy81
      Joined: 21.08.2011 Posts: 150
      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 8, T.
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.20, SB calls $0.20.

      Since I have best position I called light re-rise PF.

      Flop: ($1.5) Q, A, 9 (3 players)
      SB raises to $2.80(All-In), BB raises to $5.60, Hero folds.

      I made few bad beats before this hand on other tables and didn't want to stack vs obvious already very strong hands.

      I know I have some good outs and am trying to evaluate the correct play here. My plan was to call call SB stack, maybe even BB if he pushed whole stack (with initiative to get rid of me here and play vs SB only). But since he didn't push AI here vs me and he re-raised PF lightly I assume he has QQ/AA or AKs of clubs. The problem are his stats:

      BB: 43/35/13.6/4.6/37
      SB: 13/13/7.1/3.9/165

      What would be the correct thinking process and play here?

      Turn: ($9.9) 7 (2 players)

      River: ($9.9) 2 (2 players)

      Final Pot: $9.9.

      Results follow:

      SB shows two pairs, aces and queens(A Q).
      BB shows three of a kind, aces(A A).

      BB wins with three of a kind, aces(A A).
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello ferdy81,

      Kind of close spot here either to ship it or not. The situation here is that we need ~40% equity here and vs such a range as:

      Board: Q:club: A:diamond: 9:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    29.40%  27.65%   1.74% { 99, AQs, A9s, Q9s, AQo, A9o, Q9o }
      UTG+1  32.36%  30.62%   1.74% { AA, QQ, 99, AQs+, AQo+ }
      UTG+2  38.24%  38.24%   0.00% { Tc8c }

      For example we ain't getting it. But of course it depends what we could put the BB on. Towards his line preflop it could mean that that he has really strong hand there and folding is most likely going to be the best option.

      Best Regards.