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[NL20-NL50] Nl25 Aj

    • DeLau
      Joined: 10.01.2009 Posts: 1,606
      Villain is 23/15/6.7 over 119 hands. After preflop call I think his range is mostly 77-QQ, AK-AQ.
      After turn action I don't believe he has set, maybe KQ, AQ, maybe even TT, 99. On river I didn't see hands in his range that would call. Now I think AQ, KQ might sometimes call + 95% I have best hand here so now I like shove better.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Everest
      SB ($23.90)
      BB ($25.90)
      UTG ($27.95)
      UTG+1 ($45.95)
      CO ($26.55)
      Hero ($86.60)

      Dealt to Hero J:diamond: A:heart:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.90, Hero raises to $2.80, fold, BB calls $2.55, CO calls $1.90

      FLOP ($8.55) 2:spade: Q:spade: J:heart:

      BB checks, CO checks, Hero checks

      TURN ($8.55) 2:spade: Q:spade: J:heart: 4:spade:

      BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $4, BB calls $4, CO folds

      RIVER ($16.55) 2:spade: Q:spade: J:heart: 4:spade: J:club:

      BB bets $9, Hero ?
  • 5 replies
    • Millsyuk
      Joined: 08.06.2009 Posts: 435
      I think I would put him on AQ and possible KJ/JT and call or shove.

      Sets are pretty unlikely as is QJ and I think he raises these on the turn given your bet size and his Agg.
    • BogdanDr
      Joined: 03.12.2009 Posts: 188
      I would just call the river because his huge AF. He could still have a flush here but he also could be capable of bluffing or value betting something like KJs or JTs.
      He doesn't look to be a big fish and if you shove, he will only call if he beats you.
    • DeLau
      Joined: 10.01.2009 Posts: 1,606
      6.7 is 3bet%, not AF. Sorry for the confusion. His AF is actually 1.2, personally I never use that stat.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello lpdlamei,

      Shoving is anyways overplayed, there ain't going to be a lot worse hands which Call you. He has to be really bad for that. :D So what we could talk about here is the Call but now again what we beat there? We just beat bluff and that's it, cause he ain't betting for value like that any worse just some Jx hands.

      Why don't you believe he has set? QQ could be flatting preflop, 22/44 also possible. Why 44? Cause we all Checked on the flop and he might was planning to Check/Raise with sets on the flop but couldn't and then on turn obviously not many worse will pay. Even with made flush I wouldn't Check/Raise either but Check/Call and donk the river as he did.

      We need ~26% equity but against for example this range:

      Board: 2:spade: Q:spade: J:heart:  4:spade:  J:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    86.96%  86.96%   0.00% { QQ, 44, 22, J8s+, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QJo, JTo }
      UTG+1  13.04%  13.04%   0.00% { AhJd }

      We ain't getting it. So therefore we have to include also bluffs there into his range but most likely if he is passive then he wont have them.

      Conclusion: I'd make a crying fold.

      Best Regards.
    • DeLau
      Joined: 10.01.2009 Posts: 1,606
      I don't really think he would call 44/22 preflop with the initial raiser left to act. I definitely would not.

      And turn x/c with set is also quite weird to me. I would always bet there to make people call w A :spade: or K :spade: . He might be going for pot-control there (+ letting me bluff). Possible.

      Now I definitely think he might be bluffing the river since I don't cbet and I will bet turn a lot after they both show so much weakness.

      Btw, thanks for the elaborate answer :)