[NL20-NL50] SH25 Double gutshot and flush draw Bu v SB

    • Millsyuk
      Millsyuk
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2009 Posts: 435
      Villain:



      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($25.63)
      BB ($25.35)
      UTG ($25)
      UTG+1 ($28.49)
      CO ($28.13)
      Hero ($31.38)

      Dealt to Hero 7:heart: 8:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, SB calls $0.65, fold

      FLOP ($1.75) T:diamond: 6:heart: 4:heart:

      SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB raises to $2.75, Hero raises to $8.25, SB raises to $18, Hero raises to $30.63 (AI), SB calls $6.88 (AI)

      TURN ($51.51) T:diamond: 6:heart: 4:heart: 3:heart:

      RIVER ($51.51) T:diamond: 6:heart: 4:heart: 3:heart: J:heart:

      Hero shows 7:heart: 8:heart:
      (Pre 33%, Flop 25.1%, Turn 2.3%)

      SB shows 9:heart: T:heart:
      (Pre 67%, Flop 74.9%, Turn 97.7%)

      SB wins $49.51

      Is it wrong to get this in here?

      Against TT+ I have 52.5 eq

      If I give him something like this (TT+,66,44,AhKh,AhQh,AhJh,ATs,JhTh,Th9h) then I still get around 48%

      If I assume he 3bets JJ+/AJs+ pre flop which I think is likely and give him this range (TT,66,44,ATs,KhQh,QhJh,JhTh,Th9h,3h2h) I have around 42%.

      I'm not even sure if he reraises with less than this: (TT,66,44,AhTh,JhTh,Th9h) which gives me 37%

      He's never folding to a shove but I think I already have too much in the pot to fold?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Millsyuk,

      Well, first things first. Why do you CB so small here? The CB should be definitely bigger.

      But as played why do you ever think he would just flat with something like JJ+ there? Only reasonable flat we might see is something like TT and that's it, JJ+ I would still expect him to 3bet preflop. As we may expect that such a board most likely is very strong for him and the range I'd expect: (his Check/Raise is mainly for value here I'd expect that cause of % + W$SD too huge)

      Board: T:diamond: 6:heart: 4:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    57.84%  57.84%   0.00% { JJ-TT, 66, 44, ATs, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h }
      UTG+1  42.16%  42.16%   0.00% { 8h7h }

      Would be something similar, we would need ~48% equity which also includes rake. So therefore for me it's rather a fold. But what you should definitely have done is CB bigger.

      So what you should have done here is just Call the Check/Raise and reevaluate it on the turn. :)

      Best Regards.