[NL2-NL10] NL10: AKo Deepstacked big mistake, possible leak?

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $16.96 (169.6 bb)
      BTN: $3.85 (38.5 bb)
      Hero (SB): $14.40 (144 bb)
      BB: $10.40 (104 bb)
      MP: $14.89 (148.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A K
      MP folds, CO raises to $0.25, BTN folds, Hero raises to $1.20, BB folds, CO raises to $3, Hero raises to $14.40, CO calls $11.40

      Flop: ($28.90) 5 4 5 (2 players)
      Turn: ($28.90) 4 (2 players)
      River: ($28.90) 3 (2 players)

      Results: $28.90 pot ($1.92 rake)
      Final Board: 5 4 5 4 3
      CO showed A A and won $26.98 ($12.58 net)
      Hero mucked A K and lost (-$14.40 net)

      I am actually emarassed to post this hand as I quite likely played it terribly, lol.

      But it still is a hand that leaves me with questions:

      Opponent's stats: VP/PFR/StealfromCO/4betfromBU/Call3betfromBU/hands
      22/18/28/14(7)/0(7)/624
      No. of tables: 3-6

      BB: squeeze happy

      Because of the BB and, of course, us being OOP, 3betting is the only option in my opinion.

      Now the question: would you agree that this hand clearly represents a leak in my game, namely that I misread/misinterpret stats? The reason I am asking is that at the time I played the hand I checked his 4bet from BU stat and thought to myself: ok, 14% is quite a lot, I can't call OOP but I should be ahead, therefore – push. What I did not see at the moment was that these 14% are extracted from a sample size of 7 situations – he has 4bet only once in seven situations. 14% is a lot, that is true, but from a sample size of 7 it really does not tell me much. Given that, my push is extremely bad, not to mention the fact that we are even deepstacked.

      Misreading /misintrepreting stats might in fact be a huge leak for me, which causes me to deviate from standard lines without much justification. It makes me spewy at times.

      Does my thought process make sense? Have I evaluated my play/leak correctly?
  • 6 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      If I would be playing here 100BB deep I wouldn't mind to play for the stacks. But while we are 150BB deep I would actually be towards making the crying fold while we don't have that great sample size on the 4bet.

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Is that the recommended standard play against steals made by unknowns / regs that we do not know much about?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      Is that the recommended standard play against steals made by unknowns / regs that we do not know much about?
      Well, he isn't unknown. :D You have 624 hands on him. Against unknown we might even change our line at some point vs CO and not play for stacks. :)
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Well, he isn't unknown. You have 624 hands on him.


      No no, of course not. He is a reg that we do not know much about regarding his go-broke range from LP vs the blinds.

      I simply am a bit skeptical about going broke against regulars with AK. We should be behind when ending up all-in. That is unless we know that he is going broke with hands as JJ and AQ even. Then going broke should be rather ok. Since we do not know that, it would be too strong an assumption to make about his play.

      What about cold calling an pushing if the squeeze happy BB decides to go over the top? (provided the openraiser folds)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      What about cold calling an pushing if the squeeze happy BB decides to go over the top?

      Cold calling should be fine there, especially while he make so small raise even and we of course keep weaker Aces in the hand, only problem is playing OOP.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Thanks!