Help with Equity/EV Calculations

    • chimpboy
      chimpboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2009 Posts: 34
      Hi all,

      I would be grateful if someone could check/validate the mathematics/assumptions made in the following EV calculations.

      Scenario 1:

      With 50 BB effective stacks - hero is on the BU, A player in an earlier position open raises to 3bb all other players fold. What equity is required to make a +EV 3-bet all-in over the 3bb raise assuming the initial raiser never folds?

      Required equity = Risk / (Risk + Profit) = 50 / (50 + 51.5) = 0.493

      EV = (W * VW) - (L * VL) = (0.493 * 51.5) - (0.507 * 50) = 25.3895 - 25.35 = 0.03985

      Now if the original raiser folds to the shove 50% of the time, what is EV now?

      EV = (F * VF) + 0.03985 = (.50 * 4.5) + 0.03985 = 2.25 + 0.03985 = 2.28985

      Scenario 2:

      With 50 bb effective stacks - hero raises to 3bb in middle position, the player on the button 3-bets to 9bb. What equity is required to make a 4bet all-in shove +EV, assuming the villain never folds?

      Required equity = Risk / (Risk + Profit) = 50 / (50 + 51.5) = 0.493

      EV = (W * VW) - (L * VL) = (0.493 * 51.5) - (0.507 * 50) = 25.3895 - 25.35 = 0.03985

      Now if the villain folds to the shove 50% of the time, what is EV now?

      EV = (F * VF) + 0.03985 = (0.50 * 10.5) + 0.03985 = 5.25 + 0.03985 = 5.28985

      I wanted to make sure the above equations are correct as I'm building a spreadsheet to model 50bb all-in shoves against different raise sizes/ 3-bets etc.

      Thank you!
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