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plenos first aha moment of 2012!!

    • getdotacom
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 608
      BTN/SB: $205.30
      Hero (BB): $206.36

      Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with 9 :club: J :spade:
      BTN/SB raises to $5, Hero calls $3

      Flop: ($10.00) 3 :heart: 9 :heart: T :spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $7.16, Hero calls $7.16

      Turn: ($24.32) 4 :club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $18, Hero raises to $53.89, BTN/SB calls $35.89

      River: ($132.10) A :club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $139.25 all in, Hero calls $139.25

      Villain tagish sh reg. Haven't played him HU at all, this was 6th hand.

      F: standard c/c
      T: I decided to turn my hand into a bluff. Reasons for this:
      1)There are many rivers which we don't want to see. We will end up folding in many cases.
      2)I don't expect him to jam draw over our raise, because he plays tight (at least sh)
      3)We're ahead of many his hands in calling range and can win SD vs his missed draws

      This was 1 street bluff with no intention bluffing any river

      R: I thought for a while, then checked and he insta jammed. Can we call this ? This looks really weird, he might have AT or A9 which ofc is nuts when I check. But don't think he'd insta jam other Ax with busted fd. He's definitely jamming some busted draws here.

      What do u think about my river call and turn c/r ?
  • 5 replies
    • Bierbaer
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      First of all when you're raising the turn vs draws, you're not bluffing!

      And imo since the assumption is he has so many draws (I agree btw), this is by no means a c/r - c/f spot.

      His range for calling the turn and potentially jamming the river is:
      TT-99, 44-33, ATs-A9s, QJs, T9s, 87s, 43s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, Kh8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, Kh7h, Qh7h, Jh7h, Kh6h, Qh6h, Jh6h, 8h6h, 7h6h, Kh5h, Qh5h, 8h5h, 6h5h, Ah4h, Kh4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, Kh3h, 5h3h, Kh2h, ATo-A9o, QJo, T9o, 87o

      I left out some Tx but I think they're not important for the river as they're not jamming (imo), the same goes for some weak Ax.

      The question is which of the hands above he's shoving.
      There are a total of 21 combinations of busted FDs. If we take out half of them and leave all valuehands:

      Board: T:spade: 9:heart: 3:heart:  4:club:  A:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    48.05%  48.05%   0.00% { TT-99, 44-33, ATs-A9s, QJs, T9s, 87s, 43s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, Jh8h, Jh7h, Jh6h, 8h6h, 7h6h, Qh5h, 8h5h, 6h5h, Ah4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, 5h3h, ATo-A9o, QJo, T9o, 87o }
      MP3    51.95%  51.95%   0.00% { Js9c }

      After taking out half the busted OESDs and another 25% of the FDs it looks a little bit worse:

      Board: T:spade: 9:heart: 3:heart:  4:club:  A:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    64.91%  64.91%   0.00% { TT-99, 44-33, ATs-A9s, QJs, T9s, 43s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, Jh8h, Jh7h, Jh6h, 8h6h, 7h6h, Qh5h, Ah4h, ATo-A9o, QJo, T9o }
      MP3    35.09%  35.09%   0.00% { Js9c }

      But it's still a close call.

      So imo it's ok to c/c the river.
    • pleno1
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Really interesting hand!
    • TheLastNail
      Joined: 30.05.2008 Posts: 6,038
      dont like the T c/r this depth and on this card.

      u have a reasonably strong bluffcatcher on board which is not so superdrawheavy, compared to if T was: 6 or 7 fe. Like ur c/r on T more then vs some plrs. U should deffo bluff some R in that case, esp if most of fds would have combodraws which agro opp ships on T. So bulk of his calling range would be 1 pair+gutters/oesds.

      In the actual hand i think ur playability actually decreases w the c/r as less fds ship the T from him as well as its harder to see what ur repping. R: shove is bad, most Tx should call. c/c seems interesting, tho looks like both of ur ranges can hit the A quite some (sth like A2/A5, any Axhh tbh is very reasonable for both of u), depending on how u play tho. If u plan on playing him on, than snap, take a note, esp the timing is rly suspicious.
    • pleno1
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      the theory of c/r turn really light for value with intention of c/calling most/any river when villain likely will have super narrow river value range when jamming as he will always be like wtfcheck is super interesting.

      Does anybody have any similar hands with really "thin" hands in these spots?

      maybe my first aha moment in long time :)
    • imfromsweden007
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      check/raising turn seems kind of bad, I get the motive behind it since he has so many draws, but I prefer to do it with Tx, and c/c 9x again. As played call I guess. Expect to be good... 35%?