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[NL2-NL10] NL10 Sh - KK deepstacked vs maniac

    • numbnutter
      Joined: 21.09.2011 Posts: 139
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      UTG: $9.15 (91.5 bb)
      MP: $23.45 (234.5 bb)
      CO: $19.32 (193.2 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $24.63 (246.3 bb)
      SB: $11.25 (112.5 bb)
      BB: $13.90 (139 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with K K
      UTG raises to $0.20, MP raises to $1.09, CO folds, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, MP calls $2.91

      Flop: ($8.35) Q 6 3 (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $5.60, MP raises to $19.45 and is all-in, Hero calls $13.85

      Turn: ($47.25) J (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($47.25) A (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results: $47.25 pot ($1.50 rake)
      Final Board: Q 6 3 J A
      MP showed 3 3 and won $45.75 ($22.30 net)
      Hero showed K K and lost (-$23.45 net)

      Villain was a super aggro maniac, 89/68 with 47.8% 3bet, 33% 4bet over 121 hands. 40% WTSD.
      Can I get away from this? I'd already seen him put in his whole stack a couple of times with a weak top pair or good second pair.

      I need around 29% equity to make the call here. Absolute worst case scenario:

      Board: 6:diamond: Q:spade: 3:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    11.76%  11.76%   0.00% { KsKc }
      MP3    88.24%  88.24%   0.00% { AA, QQ, 66, 33 }

      But given that he probably shoves preflop with AA most of the time we can probably take this out. Also even if he's playing for set value here I'm still in profit even if i do call:
      7/8 times he misses, I take his $4 + other dead money = +$30.45
      1/8 times he hits, he gets my stack = -$23.45

      Given how aggressively he was playing though I think a range like this is more realistic:

      Board: 6:diamond: Q:spade: 3:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    44.68%  44.68%   0.00% { KsKc }
      MP3    55.32%  55.32%   0.00% { AA, QQ, 66, 33, AQs+, AQo }

      And even this is mostly value hands (I added AKs to represent a couple of bluffs with equity). It would surprise me if he even shoved some flushdraws here too which would only increase our equity further.

      If so much money hadn't gone in preflop I think I could get away from this but in this situation i'm not sure. What do you think?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello numbnutter,

      With your reads there is not much you can do, I doubt that I am getting away here. Especially as you said you saw him couple of times going broke with just TP.

      Best Regards.