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[NL2-NL10] JJ vs postflop fish

    • ilovemagic
      Joined: 09.09.2011 Posts: 1,019
      Now look at these stats on villain. He plays very few hands, and only pre flop raises 5% of his hands. This instantly makes it easy for me to know theres not too many bad starting hands i have to worry about him calling with preflop. we can rule out AA and KK, because i think he would 4 bet those preflop OOP. his range hardly hits this flop when I see it. He doesnt raise with 22-77 preflop. He doesnt have a set of those. He plays AKs AK, AQo, AQs, possibly just calls a 3bet with QQ OOP but i cant see that happening too too often. I rule out JJ just cuz of the unlikeliness. TT i can maybe see him calling 3bets with preflop, but unlikely, as well as 99 and 88 type hands, hes throwing those away to a 3bet preflop. so the reason I went all the way with this read was for those reasons plus these:

      He just flats my 3bet preflop, the flop doesnt hit any of his preflop 3bet calling range.
      The only hand he could be holding that he is willing to reraise me all in on that flop is QQ (unlikely because hes OOP and wouldve shoved preflop in theory.)

      The equilab gives me 77.87% equity against this tight 3bet calling range preflop.
      his range for this hand is this:
      TT, QQ, AQo+, AQs+
      his bad stats continue to make him unbelievable for this hand. He sees 36% of showdowns but only wins 25% of them. His agression factor is 4,5. not the most believable of players ive ever seen for tight starting ranges.
      He donk bets me after i clearly showed strength preflop. i min raise his donk bet for value, thinking im well ahead of his range. he shoves on me. repping some type of AA KK or QQ hand. since AA and KK isnt in his preflop calling range I can be sure he either has QQ or one of those other hands like TT, AQo+ AQs+, and is bluffing me.
      since i win 80% of the time vs his shoving range there, i make this profitable call.

      I have 80% equity vs his range on the flop...even if he has QQ there I think I still have to take that chance and go broke.

      Known players:

      0.02/0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.106 by

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J:spade: , J:diamond:
      2 folds, MP1 calls $0.05, MP2 raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.60, 5 folds, MP2 calls $0.40.

      Flop: ($1.32) 8:diamond: , 5:club: , 2:diamond: (2 players)
      MP2 bets $0.95, Hero raises to $1.92, MP2 raises to $11.90 (All-In), Hero calls $3.70 (All-In), MP2 gets uncalled bet back (All-In).

      Turn: ($12.56) 5:spade:
      River: ($12.56) 3:club: (2 players)

      Final Pot: $12.56

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      MP2 shows (Ad Qd)
      Hero shows two-pair, jacks and fives (Js Jd)

      Hero wins with two-pair, jacks and fives (Js Jd)
  • 2 replies
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello ilovemagic,

      Not even going to finish the read because you already talking against yourself and totally overplayed your JJ here. Vs such a nit you can't ever 3bet for value cause you wont see very often a lot worse hands. :) It's a standard spot where I would just Call and reevaluate it on further actions.

      And also the equities, I don't really know where you get them. :D But they are totally wrong. Wont even take a look at the result cause it's not important here, you overplayed your PP.

      Best Regards.
    • ilovemagic
      Joined: 09.09.2011 Posts: 1,019
      ty veriz :) much simpler when you speak and i like that :D ill save my level 4 thinking for the nosebleeds :P