[NL2-NL10] push

    • daisuke3823
      daisuke3823
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,321
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:


      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      SB:
      $32.30
      BB:
      $14.88
      MP3:
      $12.28
      CO:
      $10.15
      BU (Hero):
      $4.56


      Preflop: Hero is BU with K, A.
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0.7) K, 7, J (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB raises to $1.50, Hero folds, SB gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $1.2.

      SB stats
      VPIP/PFR/Fold to Cbet/Raise to Cbet=52/28/29/14

      I think I should have pushed on the flop instead of folding,right?
      or,call can be okey too?
  • 5 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hey Daisuke3823,

      Seeing this player plays 52/28, I think folding is the worst play we can make. I also think calling is marginal because there are loads of turncards you do not want to see.

      So I end up going all-in here because I am confident this player can/will check/raise worser hands vs you

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • Alesh123
      Alesh123
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.03.2009 Posts: 32
      Originally posted by Gerv
      Hey Daisuke3823,

      Seeing this player plays 52/28, I think folding is the worst play we can make. I also think calling is marginal because there are loads of turncards you do not want to see.

      So I end up going all-in here because I am confident this player can/will check/raise worser hands vs you

      Best regards,
      Gerv
      Is't 52/28 his preflop status? So you think that his c/r is not min. set?
      Gerv i start to read that forum for few weeks and you realy surprise me with your aggresive style (that is compliment :) )

      Btw i will fold on flop as well X(
    • Jimanyjerk
      Jimanyjerk
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 366
      Tough spot, but I would go aggro all-in after my AK finally hit something on the flop :D .

      With stats like his, both preflop and postflop, it's obvious he likes to play a lot of cards. If I'm reading that right, his fold to C-bet is 29 percent. less than a third of the time he's going to fold when you bet with initiative, the other 70 percent he's either calling or raising. How many hands have you C-bet into him? If you have a large sample size of him not folding to C-bets then I believe you should A) C-betting him much less often because it's not profitable, and B) value-bet every last penny out of him. He's Continuing 2/3rds of the time you bet!! The average hand hits the flop with a pair or better 1/3rd of the time!! Enjoy what appears to be a mega whale post flop :f_biggrin:

      There are 7 hands that make a set on this flop (one set of kings, 3 different ways each for a set of jacks or sevens) and being generous, 18 likely combinations that have made 2 pair (9 of KJ and 9 of K7.) There are way too many Kx, Jx, Flush draw, straight draw, gutshot, wonky, or terrible hands out there that would semi-bluff or aggro check raise someone.

      Pardon me, I got a new book about poker so I be practicing! If anything I said was blatantly wrong or stupid please let me know! good luck at the tables!

      Garet
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by Alesh123
      Is't 52/28 his preflop status? So you think that his c/r is not min. set?
      What makes you think this?
      Why do you think a 52/28 preflop statistic give a strong correlation that is check/raises are only sets?


      @ Jimany

      You are on the right way, the only part you miss is putting it all in Equilabl and compute an equity analysis of several ranges vs your hand. I am fairly confident Villain does not have KK nor JJ because he would 3bet those. Logically speaking if he doesn't have that, his valuerange that beats us at this moment is miniscule

      Therefore I shove
    • Jimanyjerk
      Jimanyjerk
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 366
      Agreed, thanks for the reply gerv :D

      I'm trying to practice doing this stuff without the equilator so I get more used to putting our opponent on ranges.

      I agree though, shove it for sure you've got his range crushed