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[NL20-NL50] nl 25 sh nf on paired board vs maniac

    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1646576
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (MP): $25.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 6, AF: 5.1, Hands: 62025

      UTG: $51.84 - VPIP: 51, PFR: 41, 3B: 8, AF: 1.0, Hands: 88

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with J :heart: A :heart:
      UTG raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 4 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) T :spade: K :heart: 9 :heart: (2 players)
      UTG bets $1.25, Hero raises to $3.75, UTG calls $2.50

      Turn: ($9.35) 4 :diamond: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero checks

      River: ($9.35) 4 :heart: (2 players)
      UTG bets $4.00, Hero raises to $10.60, UTG raises to $47.34, Hero calls $9.90 all in

      On the turn I thought that on a blank I have no FE vs this guy so I did not see value in betting because I don't think there are many pure draws in villain's range.

      On the river I would very happily fold vs almost all players, and those stats are screamingly saying to make the call but can I expect villain to be shoving more than 20 % the time here with an smaller flush because he misread the board? It seems quite optimistic to me.
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      I would bet/call turn and then shove river. This way you put maximum pressure his Tx, 9x and weak Kx hands and I think you get him to fold on the river his marginal hands+ you always have there 9+2 outs for your nuts and also 6 outs for A or J may give you best hand.

      River is easy call, since he would shove there value worse flushes, but also straight and two pair hands

      Best regards,