[NL20-NL50] SH25 - Commited in 3B pot

    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      Hand1:

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $25,75
      MP3:
      $26,05
      BU:
      $44,41

      0,15/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.105 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with Q:heart: , Q:club:
      MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $0,90, CO folds, BU calls $0,90, Hero raises to $4,15, 2 folds, BU calls $3,25.

      Flop: ($9,45) K:club: , J:club: , 5:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $5, BU raises to $24,45, Hero calls $16,60 (All-In), BU gets uncalled bet back.

      BU FtoCB = 43%

      Turn: ($52,65) 7:heart:
      River: ($52,65) 9:diamond: (2 players)
      Final Pot: $52,65
      _______________________________________________________________________
      Hand2:

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $26,05
      BU:
      $25,85

      0,15/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.105 by www.pokerstrategy.com.
      FR stats mixed in.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A:spade: , J:club:
      3 folds, BU raises to $0,75, SB folds, Hero raises to $2,25, BU calls $1,50.

      Flop: ($4,65) 9:spade: , 5:spade: , 3:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2,5, BU calls $2,50.

      BU likes to make moves against Regs so a float is possible even in a 3B pot.

      Turn: ($9,65) 2:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $5, BU raises to $21,10 (All-In), Hero calls $16,10.

      Final Pot: $51,85

  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello chocular77,

      Hand #1
      How many worse hands do you expect the guy to ship vs you? Do you think any worse hands will pay you? While he has ~220 hands with W$SD of 66. :)

      Hand #2
      2nd barreling should be fine but I would tend to rather just give up my hand there. Cause practically you need ~32% equity there which includes rake and for example against some made hands:

      Board: 9:spade: 5:spade: 3:club:  2:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    69.58%  69.24%   0.34% { 99+, KsQs, QsJs, JsTs }
      UTG+1  30.42%  30.08%   0.34% { AsJc }

      Our equity isn't enough. But of course we could play around with the equities and get a correct one if we think his range is a lot wider.

      Best Regards.
    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      About hand 1:

      I just can't take the W$SD too serious since it's not a normal value for a 68/2 player.
      His WonMoney/100 is also 80BB so i think he had just a good run over 200 hands.

      But i still don't think he could ship with a lot of weaker hands. I thought for this situations i still have the flushdraw.

      I need 31% equity and the only hand against i don't get the odds is TPTK with the A of clubs.

      Hand2:

      Yeah i underestimated how much lower my equity is on the turn with a Fdraw. I don't get the odds against any pair.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well, put the opponent on specific range you think he is on there? And lets see how easily you get the 31%. :) Of course we should still be able to get it but at the best it's just small profit. :P
    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 39.66% 39.56% 0.11% QhQc
      MP3 60.34% 60.23% 0.11% AKs, KTs+, AcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, AKo, KTo+, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs

      But this range is very optimistic (maybe i'm influenced by his showdown hand).

      This would be a range i could put a more passive/tighter player on and against this it's really close.
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 34.08% 34.08% 0.00% QhQc
      MP3 65.92% 65.92% 0.00% KK, JJ, 55, AKs, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, AKo

      Sure it's a high variance play but against this player i don't think it's a bad decision.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Yeah well, you still removed JJ/55 which could also be in his range and I might remove some of the combos and then the equity would be maybe ~35% or something similar. Which is towards break-even and a coinflip. So there will be a small profit only. :P But if you want to take it and think he is doing it maybe even with wider range then go for it. Mainly depends how wide do you see such opponents range.