[NL20-NL50] sh 25 AA vs raise on the flop

    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1652391
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (BB): $25.35
      UTG: $34.97 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 13, AF: 1.0, Hands: 41

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with A :club: A :spade:
      UTG raises to $1, 3 folds, Hero raises to $3, UTG calls $2

      Flop: ($6.10) Q :club: 7 :club: T :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.35, UTG raises to $12, Hero raises to $22.35, UTG calls $10.35

      I think that UTG raise on the flop is committing himself. Given that and the fact that he is tight I expect his range somthing like :

      Board: Q:club: 7:club: T:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    23.87%  23.87%   0.00% { AsAc }
      MP3    76.13%  76.13%   0.00% { QQ, TT, 7d7h, QTs, KcJc, 9c8c }

      Pretty optimistic as I put him calling KJs,QTs,89s preflop and this crushes me very hard. Obvious fold vs his raise?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello DeMarcohsp,

      You wont see such hands in his range there, he is pretty nitty for SH. SO you can already exclude KJs/98s/QTs. KK most likely would get it in preflop. And therefore you are pretty much beaten here by either TT/QQ I guess. :( I would be making the crying fold.

      Best Regards.