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[NL20-NL50] Nl20 AK overplay?

    • jachis
      jachis
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.04.2008 Posts: 745
      CO is 44/22 100hand sample, fold to 3bet 0% 3of3, AF1.8

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($20.10)
      Hero ($20.40)
      UTG ($24.33)
      UTG+1 ($24.28)
      CO ($19.58)
      BTN ($21.36)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: K:spade:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.20, CO raises to $0.80, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.70, fold, CO calls $1.90

      FLOP ($5.70) Q:heart: K:diamond: J:spade:

      Hero bets $3.50, CO calls $3.50

      TURN ($12.70) Q:heart: K:diamond: J:spade: 8:diamond:

      Hero bets $14.20 ????

      Is this a spew? While playing I thought, that his range on the turn consists mostly JT,QT,KT, maybe random Tx , also KQ, KJ, QJ, and AT, against that range equity wise im flipping.
  • 2 replies
    • DeLau
      DeLau
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.01.2009 Posts: 1,606
      I don't like the overbet because you might fold out QT, JT. I would just bet 8-9$ here. I think overbetting AK is more suitable on A44, A63 kind of flop.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello jachis,

      The problem on the flop is that actually this kind of board hardly hits his range. Even if he is a station then he will have a lot of broadways there. Therefore we should already consider what we going to do on the flop and then have a backup plan for the turn.

      Do you ever think he would be betting with worse hands on the turn? Like lets say JT/QT or whatsoever? I would rather say that he is Checking behind here. While there isn't that much value I might even Check the turn and take a look at further actions.

      Even against very wide range as this:

      Board: Q:heart: K:diamond: J:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    52.61%  47.66%   4.96% { QQ-TT, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }
      UTG+1  47.39%  42.43%   4.96% { AhKs }

      Our equity is still pretty much flipping. :) And even if you think there is so much value then do you really think shoving is the best idea? He will rarely Call with a lot worse.

      Best Regards.