[NL2-NL10] NL16 SH - AKo deep vs LAG

    • numbnutter
      Joined: 21.09.2011 Posts: 139
      Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $11.63 (72.7 bb)
      MP: $16 (100 bb)
      CO: $33.68 (210.5 bb)
      BTN: $15.36 (96 bb)
      Hero (SB): $22.25 (139.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A K
      MP folds, CO raises to $0.48, BTN folds, Hero raises to $1.76, BB folds, CO calls $1.28

      Flop: ($3.68) 6 A 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.56, CO calls $2.56

      Turn: ($8.80) 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.64, CO calls $4.64

      River: ($18.08) 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.44, CO raises to $24.72 and is all-in, Hero calls $7.85 and is all-in

      Results: $44.66 pot ($1.50 rake)
      Final Board: 6 A 5 4 4
      CO showed 4 7 and won $43.16 ($20.91 net)
      Hero showed A K and lost (-$22.25 net)

      Villain is a pretty aggressive LAG: 39/36 14.8% 3bet, 25% fto3bet over 103 hands, 60% steal range from the CO.

      Since we're deep and he plays pretty loose I give him a super wide range for calling our 3bet here, something like:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    60.60%  58.64%   1.96% { AdKs }
      MP3    39.40%  37.44%   1.96% { QQ-22, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, AJo+, KJo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o }

      Which is roughly a 25% range.

      The flop comes 6 :club: A :club: 5 :club:
      Not the greatest board since we have no club, but we make TPTK so this is a definite cbet for value and protection. We're still doing pretty good against his total range anyway:

      Board: A:club: 6:club: 5:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    69.53%  67.05%   2.48% { AdKs }
      MP3    30.47%  27.99%   2.48% { QQ-22, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, AJo+, KJo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o }

      Villain calls, which in my mind puts him on one of three hand ranges:

      1. A non-nut drawing hand: straight draws & weak flush draws
      2. A weakish made hand: top pair, two pair etc
      3. The complete nuts: K :club: x :club:

      I think he would raise the following ranges:

      1. Sets
      2. Nut flush draws
      3. Weaker made flushes

      and fold everything else. So I give him a new range that looks like the following:

      Board: A:club: 6:club: 5:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    55.85%  51.11%   4.74% { AdKs }
      MP3    44.15%  39.41%   4.74% { AQs-ATs, A6s-A5s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, 6d5d, 6h5h, 6s5s, 7d4d, 7h4h, 7s4s, AQo-AJo, 87o, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh }

      Turn comes 4 :spade: , more or less a blank but it does complete a draw. We fire again and yet again villain just calls. It's pretty clear that the 4 didn't really change his relative hand strength, so i think we can now remove 78 from his range:

      Board: A:club: 6:club: 5:club:  4:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    58.29%  53.88%   4.41% { AdKs }
      MP3    41.71%  37.30%   4.41% { AQs-ATs, A6s-A5s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, 6d5d, 6h5h, 6s5s, 7d4d, 7h4h, 7s4s, AQo-AJo, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh }

      River comes 4 :diamond: , pretty much a total blank at this point. Also if he had two pair we just counterfeited it. So now we're doing pretty good against his range:

      Board: A:club: 6:club: 5:club:  4:spade:  4:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    67.14%  60.00%   7.14% { AdKs }
      MP3    32.86%  25.71%   7.14% { AQs-ATs, A6s-A5s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, 6d5d, 6h5h, 6s5s, 7d4d, 7h4h, 7s4s, AJo+ }

      Equilab puts his hand strength distributions as:

      4 combos: Flush
      1 combo: Three of a kind
      21 combos: Two pair (we beat)
      3 combos: Two pair (we tie)
      4 combos: Two pair (we lose)

      My plan for the river is to bet small to induce calls from weaker two pairs, and induce raises from his bluffs (so bet/call here for me). When he shoves over we have to call $7.85 to win a pot of $36.81, so we only have to be good 17.5% of the time. Given that only 9/31 of his combos actually beat us (29%) we can infer that (5*17.5/82.5) he only needs to bluff with 3-4 combos to make this profitable, or (3.5/31) he only needs to be bluffing with 11% of his range.

      Are my range estimations okay here? Would a different line be more appropriate on the river? (bet/fold, shove, check/fold?).

      Apologies for how long this was Veriz! Thought it was a pretty interesting hand though and deserved a bit of analysis.

      EDIT: Forgot some 2 pair combos that beat us (edited this). Also I realised I removed all the weak flush draws from his range so we may actually be stronger than this on the river.
  • 2 replies
    • luizsilveira
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Hi, numbnutter.

      Since you addressed Veriz specifically I'll flag this hand to him, but I'll post my evaluation as well if that's ok.

      Preflop: (damn, this NL16 screwed my preflop math.... anyway) you can 3bet bigger for value since we're deep. 3,5x out of position against a lag is way too inviting for him to flat. You probably won't bluff this guy - especially preflop) anyway so no need to balance.

      Considering his range is wide I don't think there is much for us to do but to bet/bet/bet indeed. He might call with many AQ/AJ, especially with a :club: ; on top of that, he will probably float us a lot anyway (a guy like that does not call pre to fold flop), and we don't want to check turn and give a free card.

      However, I'd bet bigger on the turn, like at least $5.1, and get an easy shove on the river. Yes, we could once in a blue moon try to induce something but we don't want him to call a cheap river with AQ/AJ, or to just check behind his TT with T :club: hoping you were spazzing out or knowing he's beat. Against him I'm playing easy and just betting big 3 streets for value.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello numbnutter,

      Wouldn't go even into detailed analyze about ranges here, because they are totally wrong. :P I mean no made flush? No set? That kind of guy definitely can even slowplay sets.

      But if you even want to play for the stacks then no way I am going to play this way as you did. Bet bigger on the turn and ship the river yourself, you will a lot value in long run with your play. Why do you even think he will ever shove as a bluff on river while you practically are committed? :D

      Best Regards.