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[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH KQo UTG

    • tadcka
      Joined: 29.07.2011 Posts: 511
      Hello, long time haven't posted anything in evaluation forums. So here it is some work for you :)

      Villain 35/28 fold to cbet 50% agg 2.8 3bet 11.8%

      What are your thoughts about this hand?


      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($40.79)
      BB ($121)
      Hero ($153)
      UTG+1 ($91.30)
      CO ($50.50)
      BTN ($28.44)

      Dealt to Hero K:spade: Q:club:

      Hero raises to $1.50, fold, CO calls $1.50, fold, SB calls $1.25, fold

      FLOP ($5) K:diamond: 2:diamond: A:spade:

      SB checks, Hero bets $3.10, CO calls $3.10, SB folds

      TURN ($11.20) K:diamond: 2:diamond: A:spade: K:heart:

      Hero bets $6.95, CO calls $6.95

      RIVER ($25.10) K:diamond: 2:diamond: A:spade: K:heart: T:spade:

      Hero bets $15.58, CO raises to $38.95 (AI), Hero calls $23.37
  • 2 replies
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello tadcka,

      And I guess I haven't evaluated your hands either. :D

      Turn: Most likely I would still consider Betting the turn a bit bigger ~$9 even. :) Cause if he has a draw or Ax hand he is willing to pay most likely. No need to give him good odds there.

      As played
      River: Kind of dumb spot. As long I doubt that he has anything similar like KJo/KTo in his flatting range there our equity isn't going to be very good. We would need ~23% equity and for example against:

      Board: K:diamond: 2:diamond: A:spade:  K:heart:  T:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    79.17%  66.67%  12.50% { 22, AKs, KTs+, QdJd, AKo, KQo }
      UTG+1  20.83%   8.33%  12.50% { KsQc }

      A range of this we ain't getting it. So therefore our only hope is that he is bluffing, but could he even do that? :)

      Best Regards.
    • tadcka
      Joined: 29.07.2011 Posts: 511
      Actually you evaluated some of my hands several months ago when I was at micros :D

      And about that hand, he surprised me by showing AA, didn't expect something similar at this spot, knowing his 3bet percentage. :f_biggrin:

      But it is veeryy rare such a fancy play, so in the future I will know that I need to bet turn bigger in such situations. Thanks :)