[NL2-NL10] NL 10, SH, JJ, value betting light on River IP

    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

      MP: $9.36 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 7, 3B: 5, AF: 2.6, Hands: 710
      CO: $7.70 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 38
      Hero (BTN): $29.07 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 3.9, Hands: 150661
      SB: $4.05 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 47
      BB: $4.00 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 24, 3B: 15, AF: 3.6, Hands: 527
      UTG: $8.31 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 22, 3B: 10, AF: 5.0, Hands: 32

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with J :heart: J :diamond:
      UTG raises to $0.40, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.95) 6 :spade: 3 :diamond: 6 :club: (2 players)
      UTG bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

      Turn: ($1.95) 3 :spade: (2 players)
      UTG bets $1.00, Hero calls $1

      River: ($3.95) 5 :spade: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.90, UTG calls $1.90

      Flop and turn I think, it's possible for AA-88 Villain is betting for value.
      I also add AK, AQ, AJ in his bluffing range, let's say about 50%.

      River:
      I think, he will still value bet AA-KK for value on the river vs. mid pairs.
      But QQ-88 could be a ckeck/call a reasonable bet.
      Also AK-AJ [50%] would fold out.

      I think my bet should be pretty much + EV.

      Is it OK?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Anger86,

      If he has been opening a lot of hands we could sometimes even consider 3betting for value. But of course vs UTG and if he had a rather tight image from there should be fine to play it this way as well.

      Best Regards.