Swings ?

    • Karl0zzz
      Karl0zzz
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2010 Posts: 111
      Hey!

      I was wondering about swings in NL cashgames. Is it normal to have 3 +/- 10BI swings over 10k hands? Don't know if this is a dumb question, but how big swings are normal over 10/20k hands.
      And does the poker platform affect swings, if you have played in 2-3 different platforms and managed to play same style with same stats, can you see big difference in the swings?

      I know that playing style affects the most. What can you say about my graph and stats?

      This is my overall grapgh in NL2-4 FR

      This is my overall grapgh in NL2-4 FR





      And then i tried TAG'ish approach, where i still limped some hands worth raising after 3-4 limps( which happens a lot) Thats why the big cap between Vpip/pfr



      and the results...

      :facepalm:

  • 11 replies
    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Silver
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      I don't have the time to comment too much on your stats but you can't really say that a swing of 'x' is normal over 'x' number of hands because the way the cards happen to fall doesn't take in to account how many hands you've played.

      The best player in the world could sit down at an NL2 table and lose over 10k hands. It's really unlikely but definitely possible.

      The best way to minimise the swings and have the 'right' stats if there is such a thing is learn to play each situation as best you can. So, it's time to post hands in the evaluation forums, study videos\articles and analyse your game regularly.

      Everything else should then fall into place :)
    • Karl0zzz
      Karl0zzz
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2010 Posts: 111
      Originally posted by Wurble
      I don't have the time to comment too much on your stats but you can't really say that a swing of 'x' is normal over 'x' number of hands because the way the cards happen to fall doesn't take in to account how many hands you've played.

      The best player in the world could sit down at an NL2 table and lose over 10k hands. It's really unlikely but definitely possible.

      The best way to minimise the swings and have the 'right' stats if there is such a thing is learn to play each situation as best you can. So, it's time to post hands in the evaluation forums, study videos\articles and analyse your game regularly.

      Everything else should then fall into place :)
      Thank you for the awnser. It would be great if you'd find some time to analyse my stats.

      Best regards,
      Karlozz
    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Silver
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      Hi, in truth I find it difficult to read through and interpret stats in this format, it's a bit too all over the place but your winrate is good and over what I'd consider a decent sample for the micros. The only negative that jumps out at me is that there is too much of a gap between your VPIP & PFR, you seem to be calling just a little too much.

      You could open your range a little bit more on the button, currently your steal % is around 25%... I don't know if this is just for the BU or the CO as well but on the button you can definitely open up to around 30% on average but it's always situational of course.

      I think it's a good Idea to have attempt to steal and fold to steal stats in your HUD. If someone is generally tight with similar stats to yours but their attempt to steal ratio is 25%+ then you can look at their fold to 3b stat and if this is also high then just 3bet them like a monkey from the blinds until they adjust... if they ever do. Obviously don't make this decision based on 100 hands, I wouldn't pay a huge amount of attention to these stats until you have 500 hands + on a villain.

      If you spot someone in the blinds with a high fold to steal % again you can open your range right up on the button, just be mindful of sample size and BOTH players in the blinds. Obviously if there is someone who 3bets like a monkey in the blinds then stick to raising only a strong range.

      Really, as I said in the previous post - Rather than asking for advice on your stats you're better asking for advice on any hands you found difficult and even some you think are straight forward as you'll have leaks you don't expect. The hand evaluation forums are really an excellent resource. I would advise both posting your own hands and trying to analyse other peoples hands before the judge gets there. Then you can see how the hand judge's opinions match up with your own. Obviously articles and videos are excellent too but the hand evaluation forum is the best place to learn.


      EDIT: I should mention... Just looked again and I was looking at your 33K sample and not the second 20K sample. Either way you're running bad when you're all in it seems. You would be up a lot more had you not suffered so much when stacks went in.
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      Originally posted by Karl0zzz
      1) Is it normal to have 3 +/- 10BI swings over 10k hands?

      2) Don't know if this is a dumb question, but how big swings are normal over 10/20k hands.

      3) does the poker platform affect swings, if you have played in 2-3 different platforms and managed to play same style with same stats, can you see big difference in the swings?


      1) No at Full-Ring it's not no. You really need to improve your game, you seem to be a breakeven player so you should have lots of leaks scattered around.

      2) This is impossible to answer. Variance doesn't follow a "rule" or "concrete pattern" it's 100% unpredictable, if you are a winning player you can expect to win $X over X-hands, but you can't predict how the variance in those hands will be distributed.

      3) There will be softer player pools at some sites compared to others (eg: PKR is way softer than Pokerstars), and softer games = higher winrates = lower variance.
      You shouldn't be playing with identical stats on different sites though simply because player pools are different so the play tenancies will differ which means you should be adapting to the style(s) and thus having different stats as you'll be playing differently.
    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Silver
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      Originally posted by jonnyjm
      Originally posted by Karl0zzz
      1) Is it normal to have 3 +/- 10BI swings over 10k hands?

      2) Don't know if this is a dumb question, but how big swings are normal over 10/20k hands.

      3) does the poker platform affect swings, if you have played in 2-3 different platforms and managed to play same style with same stats, can you see big difference in the swings?


      1) No at Full-Ring it's not no. You really need to improve your game, you seem to be a breakeven player so you should have lots of leaks scattered around.

      This isn't good advice. You can't say that because the guy has seen a big swing at FR that he is a bad player... 10BI swings are ridiculously common in any form of poker, especially when you're just starting out and making some mistakes here an there.

      OP is winning a 6bb\100 over 33K hands so is almost definitely not a breakeven player.

      Also... Pay attention to OP's all in EV line. He has clearly been sucked out on ALOT in both samples.
    • Karl0zzz
      Karl0zzz
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2010 Posts: 111
      Originally posted by Wurble
      Hi, in truth I find it difficult to read through and interpret stats in this format, it's a bit too all over the place but your winrate is good and over what I'd consider a decent sample for the micros. The only negative that jumps out at me is that there is too much of a gap between your VPIP & PFR, you seem to be calling just a little too much.
      .
      Thank you for your quote!

      Yes, i call little too much because of the limpers. When i have suited connectors and low poket pairs, i call instead of raising because there are more than 2 limpers, i dont want to build big pot PF with marginal hands against callingstations. I hope to hit and get money in the middle.

      Imo its pointless to steal against callingstations.

      And I'll try to use more hand evaluation forum! :s_cool:
    • Karl0zzz
      Karl0zzz
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2010 Posts: 111
      But one more thing that i noticed, :megusta:

      When i look at other ppl's graphs and i see a steady growing green line and there is almost always constantly falling non-SD.

      My non-SD winnings are close to 0.. May this be the case? That i'm trying to bluff/c-bet too much and I'm willing to go to SD "light"...
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      Originally posted by Wurble
      Originally posted by jonnyjm
      Originally posted by Karl0zzz
      1) Is it normal to have 3 +/- 10BI swings over 10k hands?

      2) Don't know if this is a dumb question, but how big swings are normal over 10/20k hands.

      3) does the poker platform affect swings, if you have played in 2-3 different platforms and managed to play same style with same stats, can you see big difference in the swings?


      1) No at Full-Ring it's not no. You really need to improve your game, you seem to be a breakeven player so you should have lots of leaks scattered around.

      1) This isn't good advice. You can't say that because the guy has seen a big swing at FR that he is a bad player... 10BI swings are ridiculously common in any form of poker, especially when you're just starting out and making some mistakes here an there.

      2) OP is winning a 6bb\100 over 33K hands so is almost definitely not a breakeven player.

      1) i'm not saying your bad player if you have a 10bi swing. I'm saying in Full-Ring you like never have THREE 10 BI swings in a 10k sarmle, FR just isn't that swingy...

      2) i only looked at this skiming back up the thread so missed the other part, so i retract the second part:



      and the results...

      :facepalm:

    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Silver
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      Originally posted by Karl0zzz
      But one more thing that i noticed, :megusta:

      When i look at other ppl's graphs and i see a steady growing green line and there is almost always constantly falling non-SD.

      My non-SD winnings are close to 0.. May this be the case? That i'm trying to bluff/c-bet too much and I'm willing to go to SD "light"...
      No, your non-sd winnings are actually quite impressive for a micro stakes player. It's always going to depend on playing style but don't think that you're bluffing too much or getting to sd too light... Just take a look at your all in ev line, you're like 10 BI's below ev. If your all in winnings had matched up to your ev line you'd be winning at a decent rate.

      It's easy to pay too much attention to these lines imo and too easy to think that someone looking at your stats can give you all the answers. For sure we can spot massive leaks but I don't see anything ridiculous in your stats but then I'm no poker genius.. There are better qualified people on this forum.

      My advice is as before... Hand evaluations! Get on it and you'll see an improvement in every area. Currently I don't see anything really bad, whatever you're doing is working so don't go changing anything too drastic, just learn how to play each situation as best you can and then your winnings & stats will just fall in to place.
    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Silver
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      Originally posted by jonnyjm

      FR just isn't that swingy...

      I think you'll find that if you're running 10BI's below EV FR is exactly that swingy ;)
    • Karl0zzz
      Karl0zzz
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2010 Posts: 111
      Cool story bro. :pokerface: