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[NL2-NL10] NL2 - FR - JJ - vs deep stacked fish

    • cpers
      Joined: 17.04.2011 Posts: 566
      PartyGaming - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 7 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      UTG+1: $11.06 vp 70/pf 55/af inf/3b 25/ft3b 50/wtsd 25/wsd 50/h 20
      Hero (MP): $3.64
      CO: $3.88 vp 34/pf 6/h 71
      BTN: $3.75 vp 37/pf 17/h 30
      SB: $2.00 vp 7/pf 0/h 14
      BB: $2.00 vp 21/pf 16/h 85
      UTG: $2.54 vp 33/pf 7/af 1.6/3b 5/ft3b 100/wtsd 29/wsd 40/h 20

      SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

      Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has J:diamond: J:heart:

      UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 raises to $0.36, Hero shoves ???


      I only have a few samples of UTG+1, but since he almost play any hands. I think I could put him on a weaker range something like A8+, 88+. He plays using his huge stack most of the time, so I really doubt he'd only do this with very strong hand. If I shove here, I'm pretty sure he'd call with a lot worse hand. His favorite line postflop is to bet bet shoves with almost any made hand. I've seen him do so with bottom pair. If he could shoves with that I think he could call with any Ax hands here. So I think I could shoves here, however there's like 4 people left to act and the open limper. HU I'm ahead like 61%, but if another guy calls my shoves I'm down to third. I couldn't call for set value. So a good decision here is to fold/shoves?

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    39.24%  38.62%   0.62% { 88+, A8s+, A8o+ }
      MP3    60.76%  60.13%   0.62% { JJ }

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP1    57.53%  55.49%   2.03% { JJ+ }
      MP2    24.84%  24.27%   0.58% { 88+, A8s+, A8o+ }
      MP3    17.63%  15.96%   1.67% { JJ }

  • 1 reply
    • Wriggers
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      It is a small sample but you said you've seen him do fishy things before so we can assume he is a fish. We can shove and I think it would probably be profitable in the long run, but quite variance heavy.

      Another option would be to flat his open raise and just call down 3 streets on almost any board :)