[NL2-NL10] Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #24 06.03.12

    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello PokerStrategists,

      as some of you may have heard that we have a homework in each of our No-Limit Hand Evaluation Coachings.

      Here is the homework for the coaching from Mar 6th, please note:

      • Everybody is invited to share his thoughts here regardless if you joined the last coaching or not.
      • Whoever is active in the homework threads can get a free database analysis by us which helps you to improve your game.

      Find the hand below waiting for you opinions and analysis posted in this thread. Furthermore do not forget to join our next coaching on Tuesday, March 13th at 6 PM GMT.


      Villain 25/4/0,7 AF 50 h.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($53.35)
      BB ($49.25)
      UTG ($83.51)
      UTG+1 ($50.97)
      Hero ($55.48)
      BTN ($98.22)

      Dealt to Hero K:spade: A:club:

      UTG calls $0.50, fold, Hero raises to $2, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $1.50

      FLOP ($4.75) 6:heart: 7:diamond: A:spade:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $3, UTG calls $3

      TURN ($10.75) 6:heart: 7:diamond: A:spade: K:club:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $7, UTG raises to $20, Hero ?

      Hero calls

      RIVER ($50.75) 6:heart: 7:diamond: A:spade: K:club: T:heart:

      UTG bets $30, Hero ?
  • 10 replies
    • faronel
      faronel
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2011 Posts: 1,186
      The turn card is a complete blank: still no flush draws, no any other interesting draws. I am inclined to believe that villain plays like he has a set (especially with passive stats like that). So, unless we have some tells on villain, just bet/fold.

      And we don't get implied odds for river, even if we presume that villain is paying all his chip stack with his 66/77 on A-K river.
    • HansTheGreat
      HansTheGreat
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,808
      Kinda interesting spot. I don t think that stats actaully help as here because of the sample size.Indeed they are influencing us maybe to think wrong. Especially when it comes to AF such a smaple size is mostly missleading. So I would take this with caution.
      Preflop and flop standard.

      Turn: An overall question:"What do we expect to get called on the turn that limped /called preflop and called X/C?" If you ask me since we bet for value we mostly want to get it from weaker Ax hands or if he is loose enough from some straight draws. The other range is 66,77 since I could exclude AA and KK(rarely people limp with them). Because of my opinion of the AF and my reason that we still bet for value I would call even without implieds(wih actaully need 105,25$ left in his stack). I would fold if we would have some reads or would know his tendecies. This way I call and also plan to call a shove on the river(if he X I wouldshove myself). Maybe it seems a bit nooby but still I think it shouldn t be a huge msitake to go broke since we know the opponent just 50 hands. Here is the range I put him:

      Board: 6:heart: 7:diamond: A:spade:  K:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    69.32%  69.32%   0.00% { 77-66, A7s-A6s }
      CO     30.68%  30.68%   0.00% { AcKs }

      But we could also add some other unsuited combinations and our equity would rise. So it a play that is kinda overall close and extremely villian dependent so I think both options are fine because reason are strong for each option. I would decide to go broke and I would stick to it.
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Given his low PFR as low as his AF my impression of the villain is that he is pretty passive. I would not expect his stats to go up that much.

      I don't think he has air in his range and see his range as being very strong here. Even A6/A7 are not that likely in his range because a player like this just not goes strong without the very nuts from my experience.

      I would like folding on the turn, a c/r to 20 from this opponent looks extremely strong and would expect it to be AK at least, and that he would prolly raise preflop while he will prolly limp his pocket pairs.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,907
      First of all, this is never air or a draw.

      Next he is passive both preflop and postflop.

      A6 and A7 are in his limping range and if we assume he plays them the same as 66 and 77 we should shove for value. This is always a shove or fold spot for hero given that villain is never bluffing. We are either ahead of his value range and we get it in or we are behind and fold.

      LE: He is not that loose so if we consider only A6s and A7s in his limping range this is a clear fold.
    • Castle93
      Castle93
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2011 Posts: 1,452
      This looks like such a strong line which villain would do with a set, as the c/r on the turn is hardly ever a bluff, IMO, he isnt playing a draw this way so we re playing way ahead way behind on the turn, we know hes going to bet the river so im thinking why call the turn to fold the river?

      So i would be inclined to fold as he would limp/call 66/77 pre, im less inclined to think he would limp/call A6s/A7s from UTG but it is in his range so i would either fold the turn or 3 bet all in if we think he as A6 or A7. If he is on a draw he doesnt pay yu on the river anyways unless your beat where he might call as the pot would be around $80 dollars and he needs to call $30, we re not giving him the right odds but he may make a bad call.
    • Zeffke
      Zeffke
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2007 Posts: 1,123
      Hi all,

      I don't see him bluffing here. So we're up against his valuerange. Sikac was close but I would also include 76s so his range would be: A6s, A7s, 66, 77 and also 76s combinations...

      Which gives us:

      Board: 6:heart: 7:diamond: A:spade:  K:club:
             Equity   Win Tie
      MP2    42.73%  42.73%   0.00% { AcKs }
      MP3    57.27%  57.27%   0.00% { 77-66, A7s-A6s, 76s }


      So if we get it in here we need to invest $43.48 more to win $111.71, so we need 38.9% equity. We gave him a very very tight valuerange so let's get it in.
    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      UTG should either be on a set or 2P.
      It really depends on his exact UTG limping range.
      If he could limp with A7/A6 UTG if i would call the turn and the river or fold otherwise.

      Even if i exclude 75% of the 2P we get still good odds.
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 54.42% 54.42% 0.00% 77-66, A7s-A6s, 76s
      MP3 45.58% 45.58% 0.00% AKo
    • RedGeneral86
      RedGeneral86
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2010 Posts: 2,415
      Originally posted by Zeffke
      Hi all,

      I don't see him bluffing here. So we're up against his valuerange. Sikac was close but I would also include 76s so his range would be: A6s, A7s, 66, 77 and also 76s combinations...

      Which gives us:

      Board: 6:heart: 7:diamond: A:spade: K:club:
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 42.73% 42.73% 0.00% { AcKs }
      MP3 57.27% 57.27% 0.00% { 77-66, A7s-A6s, 76s }


      So if we get it in here we need to invest $43.48 more to win $111.71, so we need 38.9% equity. We gave him a very very tight valuerange so let's get it in.
      Even against this range it is a close cryingc call and we are not sure that he would play 67s this way. So when it is a close situation, I prefer fold.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello all,

      the problem on the turn is that he will be rarely bluffing and at the same time we can't even be sure if he raises for value with 2pair type of hands as 67. Which most likely would rather take a passive approach and pot control. We would need ~40% equity on the turn to go broke. And for example vs such a range as:

      Board: 6:heart: 7:diamond: A:spade:  K:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    65.45%  55.45%  10.00% { 77-66, A7s-A6s, AKo }
      UTG+1  34.55%  24.55%  10.00% { AcKs }

      we ain't getting it. Neither we wouldn't be getting the equity if we even add 67s cause the winning % would still not be enough. I would tend to make the crying Bet/Fold without knowing much about the opponent. Or unless we also expect him to limp with something like A7o/A6o from UTG.

      Best Regards.
    • AConnor
      AConnor
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.03.2009 Posts: 4
      i'm inclined to get it in if he is a fish , if he is a week tight reg, snap fold , havent seen his stats.. a fish tends to raise a small amount on the turn if he has a nutt type hand , especially if it is a really dry board so he does not create fold equity for the opponent. so i am getting it in.trust me scared poker is bad poker, i'm not saying 2 be a calling station but this is a clear 3b sv to me.