[NL20-NL50] Nl30 KQo thin value

    • jachis
      jachis
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.04.2008 Posts: 745
      Against a 37/3 with wtsd 46% but w$@sd 59% 565hands, I have a note that he ch/calls weak medium hands and donks improved.

      $0.15/$0.30 No Limit Holdem
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($36.26)
      UTG+1 ($30.65)
      hero (CO) ($30)
      BTN ($31.97)
      SB ($22.83)
      BB ($24.62)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.45, 6 players) hero is CO K:heart: Q:club:
      1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.30, hero raises to $1.20, 1 fold, SB calls $1.05, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.90

      Flop: K:diamond: 3:spade: 4:spade: ($3.90, 3 players)
      SB checks, UTG+1 checks, hero bets $3, SB folds, UTG+1 calls $3

      Turn: A:heart: ($9.90, 2 players)
      UTG+1 checks, hero bets $5.10, UTG+1 calls $5.10

      River: J:diamond: ($20.10, 2 players)
      UTG+1 checks, hero bets $5, UTG+1 calls $5

      On the flop its an easy valubet, on the turn some hands improve, but there are plenty of FD, Kx and other weaker hands that call so it would be ok to bet bigger here right?

      On the river I view this as a two-way bet, where I blockbet against the A, and get value against all the weaker hands.
      Now I see that his w$@sd is quite high, but I think its just variance, cause its not sustainable with such a high wtsd. How does that change things?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      if river was complete blank, like 3 or maybe 8 I would bet for value 8-10$, but here J also improves his KJ and not really sure that you´re always ahead there 50%. Consider his wide range I think small valuebet is fine, but until you don´t know what hands he would go to showdown check back should also be fine.

      best regards,