[NL20-NL50] NLSH25 Overpair on paired board

    • summermonkey
      Joined: 01.12.2009 Posts: 483
      UTG: $28.55 (114.2 bb)
      MP: $32.51 (130 bb)
      CO: $24.15 (96.6 bb)
      BTN: $25 (100 bb)
      Hero (SB): $24.85 (99.4 bb)
      BB: $57.96 (231.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with K:diamond: K:spade:
      UTG raises to $0.75, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.61, BB folds, UTG calls $1.86

      Flop: ($5.47) Q:spade: Q:club: 4:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.61, UTG calls $2.61

      Turn: ($10.69) 8:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.50, UTG calls $6.50

      River: ($23.69) 6:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $7.50, Hero calls $7.50

      My thought process is he most probably will call me with a lot of lower pairs and ofc AQ, KQ which aint many hands.

      I checked the river to let him bet his entire range. I thought that if I bet, only the Q would call me. Did I play this wrong?
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      This spot is largely dependent on villain and his propensity to turn weak pairs into bluffs.

      Turn could be a check/call or even a check/fold or a bet. Vs guys who play very honestly on the Turn, I would just check and let him reveal the strength of his hand and fold if he bets. Vs players who like to randomly bet their 2ndpair type of hand in such spots for a single street, I c/c here.

      Without any info, I bet here and c/f the river as my default plan, expecting villain to never be folding JJ and TT and 99. Bad thing about the top paired card being the Q is that a 3bet caller has a hell lot of QX hands in his range.

      KQs (1 combo)
      AQ (8 combo)
      88 (1 out of 3 combo) - discount this since he may not have it preflop so often
      10 combos we lose to

      JJ/TT/99 (18 combos we beat)

      It's clear that we can bet the Turn for value.

      River is probably a crying call. We get 20% pot odds so we need him to be betting 2.5 combos of bluffs or worse hands for value. I really doubt he calls us twice with nothing, maybe he's stupid enough to play AK in this manner but we do block AK with our 2 Ks and I really doubt he has it. Might he play JJ in this manner? I would certainly not be too surprised. Given the odds I call here. Against a 50% pot bet or larger I'm probably folding, since it would be pretty crazy for JJ to try betting 50% pot and go for thin value on the River.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      most players would raise/fold pf KQ andQJs, so i would not really worried that hand too much. If my image is bad then I would go three street for value, c/c turn to then decide on the river should also be fine, just not sure how often he would bet with worse hands, but against floats c/c turn would likely be better option.

      Really hard to make better hand than two pair usually, so I generally not give player (especially nl 25) nut hands if they bet at any point in 3-bet pot if checked to them.

      Best regards,