When to overbet?

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      After watching TwiceT's and Vonki's video series Pink Performance here on PS.com a question has arisen – how strong has your hand to be in order for an overbet against a fish to be successful postflop?
  • 8 replies
    • lilDave
      lilDave
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2011 Posts: 264
      how strong your hand is actually ins't that relevant it's how strong you think his hand is and how likely he is to call with it,

      how strong his range is is obviously crucial as every hand he has in his range that is better than yours will drastically damage the profit of an overbet.

      If you think your villian has a range strongly wieghted towards 55-99 and youhave 44 on 2423K and you think his calling frequency is somewhat inelestic to your betsize (as in, how much you bet doesn't influence his decision to call all that much) then this would be a great spot for an overbet. if you have 77 here it's a tougher spot to overbet and he calls with 88 and 99 sometimes and that really damages the profit of when he calls with 66.

      I always say that betting big should be your vacuum default always, you need a reason to bet small, not the other way round.
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Originally posted by lilDave
      how strong your hand is actually ins't that relevant it's how strong you think his hand is and how likely he is to call with it,

      how strong his range is is obviously crucial as every hand he has in his range that is better than yours will drastically damage the profit of an overbet.

      If you think your villian has a range strongly wieghted towards 55-99 and youhave 44 on 2423K and you think his calling frequency is somewhat inelestic to your betsize (as in, how much you bet doesn't influence his decision to call all that much) then this would be a great spot for an overbet. if you have 77 here it's a tougher spot to overbet and he calls with 88 and 99 sometimes and that really damages the profit of when he calls with 66.

      I always say that betting big should be your vacuum default always, you need a reason to bet small, not the other way round.
      Given this should we make our bluff bets big as a default as well?

      Or this is true vs fish where we can vary our bet size based on our hand strength.

      I think against tough opponents our bet size should be smaller on the average since they are thinking players. Is this true?
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      how strong your hand is actually ins't that relevant it's how strong you think his hand is and how likely he is to call with it, how strong his range is is obviously crucial as every hand he has in his range that is better than yours will drastically damage the profit of an overbet.


      Well, obviously our hand strength is relevant but only in comparison with our opponent's range and willingness to call with it. The example of us having a full house is not of the most difficult ones provided that our opponent is inelastic towards our bet sizes. The problem that I face, however, is dealing with medium made hands – ranging from midpairs to top pairs, both with good and both with bad kickers. I mean – where to draw the line in regards to determining whether or not an overbet would be profitable?

      And another problem – how to determine whether our opponents are inelastic towards bet sizes or not? Of course, it is never that easy, but what is the suggested approach when trying to figure out if an overbet is a good option? Do all calling stations call overbets with weak hands?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Vs Fish usually overbetting for value is best, you think he has something strong in absolute terms (like trips)
      e.g. Board is A29A5 and you have 22, you think he has AX

      Fish is kind of a station but has shown extreme weakness by snap calling Flop and Turn on low boards
      e.g. 259JA and you have 78 for example, the river is a great card to rep the Ace but a station might call a normal bet but fold to an overbet
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Fish is kind of a station but has shown extreme weakness by snap calling Flop and Turn on low boards e.g. 259JA and you have 78 for example, the river is a great card to rep the Ace but a station might call a normal bet but fold to an overbet


      Do you mean that it is possible to bluff even against calling stations provided the board structure develops favourably and you use overbets?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      not talking about total stations, but partial stations, maybe WTSD in the low 30s, the type of fish who likes to call 2 streets and fold river to a huge bet. This is the type of guy i want to run big bluffs on occasionally when board is great and i have a bit of equity and he shows extreme weakness through his timing tells.

      good thing about bluffing such players is that they get to the River with such a wide range that they just have to fold so often with all their 2nd pair or gutshot crap. of cos note that you are probably not going to be able to push them off top pair though
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      So what do you suggest a player that has never really second-barreled or 3-rd-barreled too much before should do in order to start using them without burning too much money in the beginning by spewing too much?
    • lilDave
      lilDave
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2011 Posts: 264
      Originally posted by DeMarcohsp
      Originally posted by lilDave
      how strong your hand is actually ins't that relevant it's how strong you think his hand is and how likely he is to call with it,

      how strong his range is is obviously crucial as every hand he has in his range that is better than yours will drastically damage the profit of an overbet.

      If you think your villian has a range strongly wieghted towards 55-99 and youhave 44 on 2423K and you think his calling frequency is somewhat inelestic to your betsize (as in, how much you bet doesn't influence his decision to call all that much) then this would be a great spot for an overbet. if you have 77 here it's a tougher spot to overbet and he calls with 88 and 99 sometimes and that really damages the profit of when he calls with 66.

      I always say that betting big should be your vacuum default always, you need a reason to bet small, not the other way round.
      Given this should we make our bluff bets big as a default as well?

      Or this is true vs fish where we can vary our bet size based on our hand strength.

      I think against tough opponents our bet size should be smaller on the average since they are thinking players. Is this true?
      what I meant by "Vacuum" default is that in one isolated spot, so we don't to be concerned how we balance vacuum strategy but it's just one hand