$1 45 man - Tricky Spots on the Bubble

    • Andyuk18
      Andyuk18
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.12.2010 Posts: 527
      Sorry i don't have my hand history set up to post but basically i busted 8th twice today calling off my stack on the bubble and losing. I guess the result doesn't matter much as even if i won i'd be wondering if i took a unnecessary risk or not.

      Both times villain and i had similar stacks of 10-15bb and there are a few players with even smaller stacks. Villain shoves all in and i call with AQs. On another table the same thing happens and i call with AK.

      Is going all in with these hands on the bubble the correct thing to do? I'm always aiming to come first, of course, and not just scrape a min cash but i'm wondering if risking coin flips on the bubble is really +EV or not.
  • 5 replies
    • Asaban
      Asaban
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 22.09.2006 Posts: 8,234
      Your spot is kinda tricky without knowing the exact chipcounts of all players as well as some more informations about your position, your opponents and the table flow.

      All these factors have to be considered in the process of decision making.

      In general it is absolutly possible that your call wasn't good since the bubble situations are somehow special due to ICM calculations that have to be made. To play solely for the win is a big leak imo and costs you a lot of money. Especially in 18men and 45men MTSNG's ICM is very crucial.

      If you want to have further informations about the ICM concept and how it affects your game in MTSNG's this article might be a good choice to start with:
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/mtt/1829/1/

      You may calculate the correct decision by using this calculator:
      http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html

      Enter player stacks ordered by preflop-action. UTG first, UTG+1 second, etc.
      Enter the correct payout structure for your tournament as well as blinds and antes.
      --> Look at the result and analyze if your hand was good enough to call

      If your need further assistance feel free to ask.

      Regards,
      Asaban
    • ipeaceonu
      ipeaceonu
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2007 Posts: 232
      Really is hard to say without the actual hand histories, if you had between 10-15bb's on the bubble then I would guess the AQ call would be bad and possibly the AK one as well. It's good that you are going for the win but don't sacrifice an almost guaranteed cash by taking a flip with another big stack as doubling up here does not guarantee a win. The whole independant chip model works on the fact that each chip gained is worth less than the previous. So on the bubble if you lose the hand you are out $0 and if you win the hand you have more chips and are in a better position to make a run at first place but you certainly don't double the equity you already held in the tournament, the players that gain the most by you 2 getting it in are the other players not involved in the hand as their equity goes up and you take all the risk.
    • ipeaceonu
      ipeaceonu
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2007 Posts: 232
      Originally posted by Asaban
      ,....

      Regards,
      Asaban
      Haha good timing Asaban, I must have been typing while you posted this :)
    • Andyuk18
      Andyuk18
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.12.2010 Posts: 527
      Thanks for the detailed responses.

      I am aware of basic ICM stuff but i definitely need to study more before moving up limits. I forgot to say that a big part of the reason i make these calls is because how bad everyone is at the $1 games. I see people shoving all sorts of stupid hands on the bubble and quite a lot of the time i'd be a big favourite to win with AK and AQ. I guess in the future i will muck AQ and call/fold AK based on any infos i have on opp. :)
    • ipeaceonu
      ipeaceonu
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2007 Posts: 232
      if the players are so bad then this gives you even more reason to not get it in in these spots on the bubble as they will make numerous mistakes before the bubble ends and that is where your edge will come into play, just by knowing when you have to call tight and shove loose on the bubble should put you ahead of the game.

      Each situation will be different i.e the less chips you have the less your bubble factor so you can "gamble" a bit more in these spots. There are a mountain of articles on bubble factors and icm if you just use google, the book Kill Everyone explained this concept quite well (I think there is a copy on google docs atm). If you haven't used the sng wizz trial yet then I would suggest downloading that and messing around with your HH in bubble spots e.g changing stack sizes etc until you feel confident. The bubble is probably the hardest bit of sng's to get right,