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[NL2-NL10] NL2: AKo - TP in steal situation

    • HughJazz82
      Joined: 21.04.2006 Posts: 1,230

      fold or reraise flop? i think calling is no option on that drawy board.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2.01)
      Hero ($2.99)
      UTG ($1.69)
      UTG+1 ($0.39)
      UTG+2 ($1.84)
      CO ($1.01)
      BTN ($1.96) [ 11 / 7 (50h)]

      Dealt to Hero K:heart: A:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.08, fold, Hero raises to $0.26, BTN calls $0.18

      FLOP ($0.53) J:diamond: A:club: 8:diamond:

      Hero bets $0.29, BTN raises to $0.76, Hero ???
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello HughJazz82,

      Well, lets take it this way. What kind of hands do you think he is calling your 3bet with? What kind of hands do you beat from them?

      Best Regards.
    • HughJazz82
      Joined: 21.04.2006 Posts: 1,230
      Well, if i would know that i most likely wouldn't have posted this hand :)
      Let's say his range after the flop raise is JJ, AK, AQs (i left AQo out to account for some strong top pair hands he might just call on the flop).

      Board: Jd8dAc
      Equity Win Tie
      BU 53.74% 27.51% 26.23% { JJ, AQs+, AKo }
      BB 46.26% 20.04% 26.23% { AdKh }

      With that range a fold is a mistake.

      However, i think u are trying to tell me that i should dump my hand :) . So what would be a realistic range from your point of view?
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well, I am not trying to give just my advice in hands. But also I am trying to make you think a bit about the hand. It's only better for you if you also a bit think about the hand. :)

      About the hand:
      We win the hand only ~20% of the time and split other part. We might add even AJs into his range which makes 2pairs:

      Board: J:diamond: A:club: 8:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    41.98%  19.75%  22.23% { AdKh }
      UTG+1  58.02%  35.79%  22.23% { JJ, AJs+, AKo }

      So which is really cruel for us. As you see winning equity is just 20% and the other part is just split.

      We need ~40% equity here to make it profitable Call. So we really have to expect him to be capable of calling with a lot worse Ax hands to make it profitable. :) If we think so then we can also consider going broke.

      But of course if we continue here then just ship it and protect your hand.