Graph analysis

    • grindtolive
      grindtolive
      Global
      Joined: 12.03.2012 Posts: 468



      I have a lifetime sample size with 8-9k sngs and a steady roi 5%.Is it normal to have a breakeven red line near 1k sngs?I never experience something similar before and i need some insight
  • 23 replies
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Hi, grindtolive

      To make the answer short- yes, it is definitely possible that you have close to a BE red line after 1k SnG and being a winning player at the same time.

      What matters also is how fast the blind structure is. The faster- the bigger the variance you should expect. Also, if you are a marginal winner with, let's say, 1-3% ROI, big and long swings will happen more often. Also- type of SnG- top heavy pay out structure such as 5-6-player SnGs come with a higher variance. 18-man SnG come with a higher variance, but also a higher ROI as we get paid better when we finish ITM. 1k is not a reliable sample. Actually, it usually never is. Especially if you try to determine your real ROI. 1k on a new limit/type of SnG, should give you a feeling whether you can beat the limit or not, whether you have an edge over the field, what adjustments you have make etc.

      To help you understand variance better, I suggest you read this article:

      ARTICLE


      Also, would you give us some additional info about the limits/type of SnG you play, so we can possibly start a bit deeper analysis?
    • grindtolive
      grindtolive
      Global
      Joined: 12.03.2012 Posts: 468
      Sure thanks for the quick response

      I play 9 max turbos in pokerstars.Generally 7$ or 15$

      My roi is steady 5% and as i say i never experienced with such a long breakeven stretch.I count 5% as pre rakeback.I dont cash fpps until i reach supernova
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      No worries! I almost responded to the previous post of yours!

      Stars have a very balanced blind structure, 8-9k is a reasonable sample for 9-player SnG. So, I will rely on it. For this many games, you know you are a winning player + your ROI is about 5%. Could vary a bit depending on many factors, but it should be definitely close to reality, without any huge differences. How's EV line?

      And by the way, I used to play on stars as well, 1k BE stretches are very common! It's good that you question yourself though, but improvement is an endless process. And there is always room for improvement. I think you can definitely achieve a higher ROI on these limits. Aim for 8% f.e. If I can give you an advice- work on your game daily. Or at least everytime that you play. Either start a discussion here, you can also post hands in the evaluation forum( that's what helps me the most) , watch vids- <3 has released 2 very nice vids on your limits that are available for your status,check push/fold in wiz, etc. You are experienced already, you probably know that.


      I will give you a link for the vids in case you missed them:

      Vid 1

      Vid 2
    • grindtolive
      grindtolive
      Global
      Joined: 12.03.2012 Posts: 468
      Thank you again for taking time to view my post.My red line was 5% before this breakeven stretch while my green line was at 4.8%.I ll take a look at the videos and i will tell you my opinion.8% pre rakeback?I dont know if this is achievable because i dont use table selection strategy in 7$.In 15$ i know only 1 person having 8% and he is trained by the best.I hope i can achieve 7% someday but this is the max in my opinion.Your words about 8% give me hope.Thank you
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Definitely check the vids imo. I think 8% ROI pre rakeb is definitely achievable on these limits, not science-fiction or so :s_biggrin: You don't need to be the best, but table selection is a must on stars imo! I've checked many poker rooms, competition is really the toughest possible. Just mix imo, I used to mix 15$ turbo 9-player with 15$ turbo KO's, sometimes even adding 18-man. Of course there are some adjustments, but games are played in a relatively similar way.

      And p.s. check these turbo KO's imo. Used to be softer than the 15$ reg turbo ones.


      There is a vid of sir Collin Moshman speaking about the differences and adjustments we have to make in these games.

      Bounty SnG
    • grindtolive
      grindtolive
      Global
      Joined: 12.03.2012 Posts: 468
      Really you think is a must?Thank you for point this out further because i tend to not table select.I find many regs are exploitable even though i dont have the biggest roi,but to be honest never thought it in depth


      Kos, i think they are miscalculated by HEM1 thats why i dont play them
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Maybe not a must, but more of a personal approach. But I have to agree- a lot of these regs are exploitable, some of them play more tables than what they can handle. It's hard to calculate whats more + EV as the time you will spend on table selecting + the lower volume might affect your hourly rate in a bad way. I've always been a fan of table selecting though. It's like you make a safer investment. Stars has a high traffic and low rakeb for ppl, who don't have SN. Most of the 7-15$ grinders don't. So prerakeb winnings is number 1 priority.

      Playing with 4-5 other multitablers doesn't mean game is unprofitable though. On stars, I aimed for me+ 2 other winning regs, 2-3 BE/bad regs+3-4 fishes. If the table has 3+ winning regs though, I am not joining.
    • grindtolive
      grindtolive
      Global
      Joined: 12.03.2012 Posts: 468
      One of my goals is to reach sn this year
      Second goal to reach 7% roi in 15$



      Although the current run is depressing and demotivates a lot to play poker.Your words fullfill me with hope.Thank you


      Ps The player i told you he is 8% is sandmaness.Even he has a 3500 breakeven stretch(lol).Hopefully i will find courage to grind through this.Everything seems to be wrong right now.Thank you for the courage you give me
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      You I've noticed that during these long swings I start questioning myself the most. I doubt whether I can beat the game or not. But this has a positive side, if I think there is nothing to improve- I start my biggest mistake right there.I review my game, post hands, some times even re-watch videos, discuss HH with other poker strategists. I really stress on that because I think it matters a lot. As you said- even the best player in your stakes has 3.5 BE stretches. I've had 3k BE stretches twice already on 2 different sites. On limits that I am sure I beat. So keep your head up and stay hungry for better results!


      P.s. Solid goals!

      Go go go and share with us when you reach SN, it's gonna inspiring for a lot of people.
    • ghaleon
      ghaleon
      Black
      Joined: 17.10.2007 Posts: 5,877
      I don't know of 7$ and 15$ limits, but any higher than that table selection become very important. I find it quite funny that sometimes when checking 6max tables there is 4 player registered. 3 of them are colored as red (winning over 3% with decent sample) and one as yellow (-2 to 2% roi). Game like that won't really be profitable for anyone even if two fish joins.

      Less funny when you join good table with two unknowns and three other regs are last to join :rolleyes:
    • xlesleyx
      xlesleyx
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2011 Posts: 136
      If you dont mind me asking what is your stars username?
    • grindtolive
      grindtolive
      Global
      Joined: 12.03.2012 Posts: 468
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/sng/1072/4/



      This would extremely helpful for my confidence.I saw that there is 11% propability to be break even with 3k sngs if i am a 4% roi player.Thank you for posting this.It was an excellent boost-up-morale-confidence-motivation



      Thank you kurk
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Originally posted by grindtolive
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/sng/1072/4/



      This would extremely helpful for my confidence.I saw that there is 11% propability to be break even with 3k sngs if i am a 4% roi player.Thank you for posting this.It was an excellent boost-up-morale-confidence-motivation



      Thank you kurk

      My pleasure! Happy that I helped! And it's definitely a good thing that you started posting hands in the evaluation forum as well imo :) GL from now on!
    • grindtolive
      grindtolive
      Global
      Joined: 12.03.2012 Posts: 468
      Table 1:


      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
      SB ($1,950)
      BB ($1,680)
      UTG ($3,750)
      Hero ($1,805)
      CO ($2,630)
      BTN ($1,685)

      Dealt to Hero 6:spade: 6:heart:

      fold, Hero raises to $1,805 (AI), fold, fold, fold, BB calls $1,480 (AI)

      FLOP ($3,460) J:club: 4:diamond: 8:heart:

      TURN ($3,460) J:club: 4:diamond: 8:heart: A:diamond:

      RIVER ($3,460) J:club: 4:diamond: 8:heart: A:diamond: 3:diamond:

      Hero shows 6:spade: 6:heart:
      (Pre 19%, Flop 10.0%, Turn 4.5%)

      BB shows K:club: K:heart:
      (Pre 81%, Flop 90.0%, Turn 95.5%)

      BB wins $3,460


      Table2:

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($1,420)
      BB ($1,500)
      Hero ($1,360)
      UTG+1 ($1,500)
      UTG+2 ($1,330)
      MP1 ($1,920)
      MP2 ($1,550)
      CO ($1,450)
      BTN ($1,470)

      Dealt to Hero 6:spade: 6:diamond:

      Hero calls $20, fold, UTG+2 raises to $40, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $30, BB calls $20, Hero calls $20

      FLOP ($160) T:heart: 6:club: 9:club:

      SB bets $80, BB calls $80, Hero raises to $320, UTG+2 folds, SB folds, BB raises to $1,460 (AI), Hero calls $1,000 (AI)

      TURN ($2,880) T:heart: 6:club: 9:club: J:spade:

      RIVER ($2,880) T:heart: 6:club: 9:club: J:spade: T:spade:

      BB shows 9:diamond: T:club:
      (Pre 49%, Flop 22.1%, Turn 9.1%)

      Hero shows 6:spade: 6:diamond:
      (Pre 51%, Flop 77.9%, Turn 90.9%)

      BB wins $2,880

      table3:

      Villain is 50/50 filtered in 23 hands but ofc he has a hand


      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
      SB ($1,950)
      BB ($8,270)
      CO ($1,765)
      Hero ($1,515)

      Dealt to Hero J:heart: A:diamond:

      CO raises to $600, Hero raises to $1,515 (AI), fold, fold, CO calls $915

      FLOP ($3,330) 4:heart: 3:diamond: 2:club:

      TURN ($3,330) 4:heart: 3:diamond: 2:club: 9:heart:

      RIVER ($3,330) 4:heart: 3:diamond: 2:club: 9:heart: 4:spade:

      CO shows T:heart: T:spade:
      (Pre 57%, Flop 62.7%, Turn 77.3%)

      Hero shows J:heart: A:diamond:
      (Pre 43%, Flop 37.3%, Turn 22.7%)

      CO wins $3,330

      table4:


      ofc i loose many bbs because of the cooler in the end from the fish who dont know he has nuts

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $30(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2,037)
      BB ($900)
      UTG ($1,480)
      UTG+1 ($1,735)
      UTG+2 ($1,529)
      MP1 ($1,309)
      MP2 ($1,590)
      CO ($1,465)
      Hero ($1,455)

      Dealt to Hero 9:spade: 9:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, MP1 calls $30, fold, fold, Hero raises to $120, fold, fold, MP1 calls $90

      FLOP ($285) 7:club: T:club: A:heart:

      MP1 checks, Hero bets $180, MP1 calls $180

      TURN ($645) 7:club: T:club: A:heart: Q:diamond:

      MP1 bets $30, Hero calls $30

      RIVER ($705) 7:club: T:club: A:heart: Q:diamond: 9:diamond:

      MP1 bets $30, Hero raises to $360, MP1 calls $330

      MP1 shows J:spade: K:spade:
      (Pre 48%, Flop 39.2%, Turn 100.0%)

      Hero shows 9:spade: 9:heart:
      (Pre 52%, Flop 60.8%, Turn 0.0%)

      MP1 wins $1,425

      table 5:

      ofc he will hit one outer

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $100(BB) Replayer
      SB ($1,620)
      Hero ($1,130)
      UTG ($1,585)
      UTG+1 ($4,305)
      UTG+2 ($1,495)
      CO ($1,060)
      BTN ($2,305)

      Dealt to Hero 9:spade: 8:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, CO calls $100, fold, fold, Hero checks

      FLOP ($250) 4:club: 6:diamond: 8:club:

      Hero bets $187, CO calls $187

      TURN ($624) 4:club: 6:diamond: 8:club: 9:diamond:

      Hero checks, CO bets $773 (AI), Hero calls $773

      RIVER ($2,170) 4:club: 6:diamond: 8:club: 9:diamond: J:heart:

      CO shows 9:heart: J:diamond:
      (Pre 67%, Flop 16.5%, Turn 6.8%)

      Hero shows 9:spade: 8:spade:
      (Pre 33%, Flop 83.5%, Turn 93.2%)

      CO wins $2,170

      table6:

      ofc the bb will have a hand

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $150(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($1,680)
      BB ($3,315)
      UTG ($1,440)
      CO ($5,150)
      BTN ($1,915)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: 2:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1,680 (AI), BB calls $1,530

      FLOP ($3,360) A:heart: J:diamond: 9:heart:

      TURN ($3,360) A:heart: J:diamond: 9:heart: 5:heart:

      RIVER ($3,360) A:heart: J:diamond: 9:heart: 5:heart: 4:club:

      Hero shows A:diamond: 2:diamond:
      (Pre 32%, Flop 4.9%, Turn 0.0%)

      BB shows J:heart: J:club:
      (Pre 68%, Flop 95.1%, Turn 100.0%)

      BB wins $3,360

      table7:

      big stack villain win 3 all ins preflop with a7 a6 at but now ofc i coinflip with him

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($231)
      BB ($1,485)
      Hero ($1,240)
      UTG+1 ($1,075)
      UTG+2 ($1,335)
      CO ($1,595)
      BTN ($6,539)

      Dealt to Hero Q:club: A:heart:

      Hero raises to $125, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $125, SB raises to $231 (AI), fold, Hero calls $106, BTN raises to $1,300, Hero calls $1,009 (AI)

      FLOP ($2,761) T:heart: 4:diamond: 7:spade:

      TURN ($2,761) T:heart: 4:diamond: 7:spade: 3:spade:

      RIVER ($2,761) T:heart: 4:diamond: 7:spade: 3:spade: 2:spade:

      Hero shows Q:club: A:heart:
      (Pre 36%, Flop 24.6%, Turn 9.5%)

      BTN shows 5:club: 5:spade:
      (Pre 32%, Flop 48.0%, Turn 57.1%)

      SB shows 8:spade: K:spade:
      (Pre 32%, Flop 27.5%, Turn 33.3%)

      BTN wins $2,018
      SB wins $743

      table8:

      villain has 82/45 in 30 hands but ofc he has monster

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $100(BB) Replayer
      SB ($1,720)
      BB ($1,620)
      UTG ($2,285)
      UTG+1 ($3,560)
      Hero ($1,885)
      BTN ($2,430)

      Dealt to Hero T:spade: T:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $400, Hero raises to $1,885 (AI), fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $1,485

      FLOP ($3,920) 9:heart: 7:heart: 7:club:

      TURN ($3,920) 9:heart: 7:heart: 7:club: A:spade:

      RIVER ($3,920) 9:heart: 7:heart: 7:club: A:spade: J:spade:

      UTG+1 shows K:heart: K:club:
      (Pre 82%, Flop 88.4%, Turn 95.5%)

      Hero shows T:spade: T:heart:
      (Pre 18%, Flop 11.6%, Turn 4.5%)

      UTG+1 wins $3,920


      table10:

      classic bvb last 4 weeks

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($1,045)
      BB ($1,540)
      UTG ($1,915)
      UTG+1 ($2,765)
      CO ($3,795)
      BTN ($2,440)

      Dealt to Hero 2:diamond: A:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1,045 (AI), BB calls $845

      FLOP ($2,090) 8:heart: T:spade: 5:club:

      TURN ($2,090) 8:heart: T:spade: 5:club: J:heart:

      RIVER ($2,090) 8:heart: T:spade: 5:club: J:heart: J:spade:

      Hero shows 2:diamond: A:spade:
      (Pre 27%, Flop 15.1%, Turn 0.0%)

      BB shows J:club: A:diamond:
      (Pre 73%, Flop 84.9%, Turn 100.0%)

      BB wins $2,090


      table11:

      classic button push into a bigger

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $150(BB) Replayer
      SB ($6,760)
      BB ($2,110)
      UTG ($1,450)
      CO ($1,480)
      Hero ($1,700)

      Dealt to Hero A:club: 8:club:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $1,700 (AI), SB raises to $3,648, fold

      FLOP ($3,550) 2:spade: Q:club: 9:club:

      TURN ($3,550) 2:spade: Q:club: 9:club: T:heart:

      RIVER ($3,550) 2:spade: Q:club: 9:club: T:heart: K:spade:

      Hero shows A:club: 8:club:
      (Pre 29%, Flop 37.2%, Turn 27.3%)

      SB shows A:diamond: Q:diamond:
      (Pre 71%, Flop 62.8%, Turn 72.7%)

      SB wins $3,550

      table12:

      but ofc in an any two spot the sb has a real pushing hand.VIllain is a reg pushing 85% over 9k hands

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
      SB ($4,195)
      Hero ($1,145)
      UTG ($987)
      UTG+1 ($1,875)
      CO ($2,466)
      BTN ($2,832)

      Dealt to Hero Q:club: 9:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $400, Hero raises to $1,145 (AI), SB calls $745

      FLOP ($2,290) T:club: K:diamond: 7:heart:

      TURN ($2,290) T:club: K:diamond: 7:heart: 5:spade:

      RIVER ($2,290) T:club: K:diamond: 7:heart: 5:spade: T:diamond:

      SB shows A:diamond: 3:spade:
      (Pre 57%, Flop 61.5%, Turn 77.3%)

      Hero shows Q:club: 9:diamond:
      (Pre 43%, Flop 38.5%, Turn 22.7%)

      SB wins $2,290

      tables13:

      villain 44/25 in 28 hands in bubble.ofc baby i cant even coinflip with him

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $300(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($3,150)
      BB ($5,485)
      CO ($2,325)
      BTN ($2,540)

      Dealt to Hero Q:diamond: A:club:

      fold, BTN raises to $600, Hero raises to $3,125 (AI), fold, BTN calls $1,915 (AI)

      FLOP ($5,430) 8:heart: 7:club: 6:diamond:

      TURN ($5,430) 8:heart: 7:club: 6:diamond: J:heart:

      RIVER ($5,430) 8:heart: 7:club: 6:diamond: J:heart: 2:club:

      Hero shows Q:diamond: A:club:
      (Pre 25%, Flop 15.9%, Turn 6.8%)

      BTN shows K:diamond: A:heart:
      (Pre 75%, Flop 84.1%, Turn 93.2%)

      BTN wins $5,430


      In conclusion from a session of 15 tables i had 13 dead tables.Same shit 4 weeks now.Same shit again and again.This jokerstars is unbelievable.One month now.If i run good i will win my A8s to AQ bvb.I always run in better hands no matter what.This is a fucking joke.My redline just dont go up.9k sample i had 5.5-6% roi in 7$ and this month i have 0.7%.THis is a joke

      EDITED BY KURRKABIN

      Peace




      So tilted now
    • Solidius
      Solidius
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 209
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-j5Z4E2wkh4


      Relax.... :s_cool:
    • MadInAVacuum
      MadInAVacuum
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.08.2010 Posts: 769
      Hi. I play 7$ and 15$ on stars too and this month the games are defenitely much worse than the last few months. I think this is because of Zoom's launch.
    • grindtolive
      grindtolive
      Global
      Joined: 12.03.2012 Posts: 468
      Originally posted by Solidius
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-j5Z4E2wkh4


      Relax.... :s_cool:
      thank you
    • grindtolive
      grindtolive
      Global
      Joined: 12.03.2012 Posts: 468
      Originally posted by pmitchev
      Hi. I play 7$ and 15$ on stars too and this month the games are defenitely much worse than the last few months. I think this is because of Zoom's launch.

      worse by which mean?
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Now that one day is gone I am sure you don't mean what you said. Still- it was pretty harsh though, so I had to edit it. We can't tolerate such an offensive language. I hope you understand that as it creates a better atmosphere for all of us.

      Many things have been said about tilt and how to deal with it. Watching these vids will be a good help for you. Psychology Vids

      There is no other way around it. If you wanna be a winning player ITLR, you should learn how to deal with variance, tilt, self-control. You know that and I am sure saying all this will feel like a relief to you. I hope it's the first step of improving your mindset and look on the game. 4.5k games or 2 months I run under EV. Last month I had like 3-4 swings of about 60-70 BIs.

      Question yourself-work on your game-stay cool and calm, be ready to face and overcome the difficulties. You gotta be ready to take more and still be able to move on and stand strong. I think that temptation resistance and the ability not to give up on problems is a true measure of somebody's character. That's how winning is done.
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