Fold Equity

    • theloniousbones
      theloniousbones
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.01.2008 Posts: 177
      I'm not sure I understand Fold Equity fully.

      I assume it's the value gained by having opponents fold to your (bluff) bet, but I can't really find much information on it, or if there are any base calculations or circumstances in which FE plays into account.

      Any help on this would be great.
  • 10 replies
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
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      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      it's basically the number of times (in %) your opponent folds. You can't really calculate it, just grossly approximate based on the circumstances (but you can of course calculate what it SHOULD be to make a bet profitable)
    • xylere
      xylere
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      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      how come you can't calculate it?) we are supposed to put our opponents on the range and if you now it, you can calculate your FE, based on opp's tendencies.
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      yes of course, but since it's impossible (or very rare) to put an opponent on a specific range, and predict his behavior very accurately, you're only going to have a rough approximation of the actual fold equity
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
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      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      @xylere, example: your opponents hit their hands on the flop around 35% of the time. so your continuation bet should work 65% of the time. but that's not necessarily the case, cause your opponent may not fold even though he didn't hit..
    • 2weiX
      2weiX
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      Joined: 15.08.2006 Posts: 2,116
      He might also fold IF he hits his card, depending on how high your bet is, and depending what's on the line. Around the Bubble in SNGs, Fold Equity plays a major part in your strategy.
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
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      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      i would hope fold equity always plays a big part in your game, as you yourself only hit 35% of the time :P .
    • theloniousbones
      theloniousbones
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      Joined: 30.01.2008 Posts: 177
      So you're basically saying that Fold Equity is really a mathematical term to describe that feeling you get when you know (or strongly believe) that you opponent will fold in a given situation?

      So I can confidently believe that my instinct and gut feeling in regards to certain opponents or situations can be measured by the arbitrary term of Fold Equity.....
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
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      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      feeling? we assume your opponents fold missed flushes and straights on the river, as well as some weaker made hands... so if you input his range on the river and have a look at what hit hard, you can calculate your approximate fold equity..
    • SoyCD
      SoyCD
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      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 6,356
      What hasn't been really been mentioned here is the important role FE plays in the context of playing draws aggresively (one of its most important fields of application)

      Lets say you are holding a draw of specific strength. You might have anywhere between 20-50% chance of completing your draw by the river

      To make it easier in this case your opponent is holding something between a weak to moderately strong hand such as Overcards / Small Pocket / Low pair / draw himself / mid pair / top pair no kicker which is currently still ahead of your hand but not something that he wants to necessarily invest a lot of money with

      Depending on whoever has the initiative you decide to play your draw aggresivly by either betting or check raising

      You do this out of two reasons 1) your equity and chance to improve your hand 2) your Fold Equity (e.g. the chance your opponent folds his hand even though it might be better.

      If you didnt play the draw aggresively (and just called) this additional equity (fold equity) created through your aggresion and the opponent potentially folding stronger hands would be lost. You would only be relying on your actual equity (of hitting the draw).

      Depending on how strong your opponents hand is and how tight he is - FE will play differently important roles in how you play your draws. If your opponent is holding anything under top pair (which still beats your draw though) and you are representing great strength you will have more fold equity than you do against TPTK (although some players might even fold TP - or overpairs against enough aggression)(Never go broke with just a pair :) )

      Then again in certain situations where your opponent is more or less commited or will go broke with a broad range of hands - you might have next to 0 fold equity. In such cases it would be bad to play anything but the strongest draws aggresively. Here you should play your draws simply according to odds out and implied odds.



      To sum it up: When you have a draw - you need to approximate how often your opponent might fold against aggresion (what hands could he have and what hands might he fold - the texture of the board is very important here: can you represent a set or made hand here? is it a scary board for him etc) and upon this deceide whether you should therefore play your draw in an aggresion fashion or not :)
    • theloniousbones
      theloniousbones
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.01.2008 Posts: 177
      Thanks all!

      It's making sense now. Any tips on training myself to incorporate these strategies in my game? Knock down a limit or two and play around maybe?