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Cowboys vs cold 4bet

    • XandreW36
      Joined: 05.09.2010 Posts: 197
      Poker Stars $16.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1680114
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      SB: $38.01 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 13, 3B: 3, AF: 1.3, Hands: 977
      BB: $17.36 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 17, 3B: 9, AF: 6.0, Hands: 95
      UTG: $8.22 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 3.4, Hands: 490
      UTG+1: $15.30 - VPIP: 31, PFR: 4, 3B: 0, AF: 3.3, Hands: 77
      UTG+2: $20.32 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 5, AF: 1.8, Hands: 1973
      MP1: $15.84 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 9, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 78
      MP2: $12.38 - VPIP: 8, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 2.5, Hands: 119
      CO: $17.20 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 12, 3B: 0, AF: 0.7, Hands: 77
      [b]Hero (BTN): $16.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 15, 3B: 3.8, AF: 3.8, Hands: 77[/B]

      Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is BTN with K :heart: K :club:
      2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.64, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.92, 1 fold, BB raises to $5, 1 fold, Hero ??

      Ofc i 5b shoved and ofc he showed bullets and I sucked out on him, easy game :P .
      But real question is do we have a profitable spot here against average micro limit regular?
      Considering that half combinations of AK are missing as we are holding two kings and QQ doesn't look that good after raise and re-raise.

      If we take out fold equity, we're risking 14,08 to win 7,64 in pot + his 11 behind + our 14,08 = 32,72
      So odds are 2,32:1 or 43%. If we add rake (NL16, Pokerstars 4,50% / 2)
      45,25% equity is needed to break even.

      If villain stack off with 7/8 AK combos:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    45.67%  41.94%   3.73% { KdKh }
      SB     54.33%  50.60%   3.73% { AA, KsKc, AsKs, AcKc, AdKs, AdKc, AhKs, AhKc, AsKc }

      If villain stack off with just 2/8 AKs combos:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    32.23%  26.67%   5.56% { KdKh }
      MP3    67.77%  62.21%   5.56% { AA, KsKc, AsKs, AcKc }

      In general, I'm staking off w/ KK all day long and I'm aware that some of our profit comes from collecting dead money pre flop. But I feel like I'm running into Aces too often in this spot...

      What do you people think about all this? Is there any other line, maybe flatting pre? Or how to estimate fold equity and make some calculations.
  • 2 replies
    • Phgrinder
      Joined: 16.02.2009 Posts: 1,007
      have the same question also
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      This question is purely about whether villain can have anything other than AA so your preflop equity calculations are pretty pointless.

      And this boils down to...
      1) Your image
      2) His 4-bet range (which can be inferred from his overall stats)

      How does he play QQ/AK? Of course if you knew you wouldn't be asking this question. So look at his 4bet range stat. But I assume you have no sample given that you dont even have 100 hands.

      Then look at his overall VPIP/PFR/3bet. 17/17/9 looks kind of aggro so I wouldn't be surprised if he had QQ+/AK here.

      Does he have bluffs? I Doubt it, given your starting positions. You are 16/15/4 which is pretty average (maybe even loose for your limits) which is in your favour as it would widen his value range as well.

      Flatting the 4bet pre is silly unless you think this guy 4bet/folds AK and QQ, which may be possible at NL5 when people 4bet to test the strength of their hand.

      In short I don't think I Would consider folding KK given that you are 3betting on the BU. I'm not sure how light you are 3betting here and how aware your opponents are about your image. If your opponent is nitty and you are nitty as well, and especially if you are in early positions, then perhaps you could start thinking about folding.