[NL2-NL10] Nl4 TT

    • TheWinnerTakesItAll
      TheWinnerTakesItAll
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 1,187
      Opponent stats 39/8 AF:2,86 after 65 hands.
      Is it possible to fold?

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.04 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      BB:
      $4.00
      UTG2 (Hero):
      $4.69
      MP1:
      $3.55
      MP2:
      $4.01
      MP3:
      $4.00
      CO:
      $4.56
      BU:
      $4.00
      SB:
      $4.22


      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with T, T.
      Hero raises to $0.16, 4 folds, BU calls $0.16, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0.38) K, T, 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.27, BU raises to $0.54, Hero raises to $1.04, BU raises to $1.54, Hero raises to $4.80, BU calls $2.30.

      Turn: ($8.75) 7 (2 players)


      River: ($8.75) 4 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $8.75.

      Results follow:

      Hero shows three of a kind, tens(Td Tc).
      BU shows a straight, king high(Jc Qh).

      Hero wins with three of a kind, tens(Td Tc).
      BU wins with a straight, king high(Jc Qh).
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      while I am really afraid of the minraise/min4bet on the Flop (really smells like straight), I think he could have some other sets and perhaps play some other strong hand weirdly. We have 33% equity vs the straight and we do have enough odds to stack off vs the rest of his range (if we are wrong about him having a straight we make a small mistake. If we assume he does have QJ and fold but he actually has something else, we are making a massive mistake).

      At the point in time when you min3bet and get faced with a min4bet, you have to push 3.80$ more in the pot to win a pot of 8.45. You are getting 45% pot odds.

      Against 99/QJ you get 43.57% equity so shoving is barely -EV. Vs KT/99/QJ you get 50% equity. Question is can you be so sure he only has QJ?

      If you have large sample on him and you have a very strong read that he only plays the nuts this way, then obviously best play is to call his min4bet and try to hit a boat. But I really doubt you have such strong reads so best play is to push.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello TheWinnerTakesItAll,

      Bet the flop bigger to protect your hand and at the same time 3bet bigger to protect your hand as well. Your play is totally off here, you are giving him very good odds if he has a draw or anything similar. We ain't planning to fold our set here while he could easily have even worse hands and not only straights.

      Best Regards.