888 Rigged! Statistical Evidence

    • BObamaJr
      BObamaJr
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.01.2012 Posts: 232
      You may think that online poker isn't rigged.

      Statistical analysis has shown that 888poker is 'within EV'. Meaning; the odds-based expected outcomes for hands has been consistently followed over a long period of time.

      This is true, however these studies don't differentiate between hands involving:

      - A 'reg' vs a 'reg' (two players who have played consistently at the site and will most likely continue to play)

      or

      -A 'reg' vs a 'beginner' (a beginner is just starting out at the site and doesn't necessarily feel any connection or loyalty towards the poker room)

      This is crucial to the poker rooms' scam.

      Analysis doesn't look into the context of EV deviation. It doesn't analyse the lifespan of a player's account.

      To attract and retain new players they will give beginners a 'lucky start'. This will involve them winning when they are expected to lose and being dealt favourable hands. This develops loyalty with the site as the player believes they have more favourable probabilities on that particular poker room.

      Further in their poker careers the rooms will 'balance' their luck. This involves more bad beats and a lower proportion of premium hands. As they have already developed a strong connection with the poker site and remember their previous successes they will be less likely to abandon the site or the game.

      As their experiences go through the 'balancing phase' they will believe it to be just a short-term run of 'bad luck'.

      As a player's EV is balanced over a period of time it becomes impossible to detect statistical inconsistencies. Analysis of a player's (or poker room's) delineation from expected value will show consistent results as the room has ensured that player's experiences have been balanced.

      This makes detection of EV deviation within a large sample size impossible. Deviations of an individual's EV can never reliably prove a room's guilt as it is just a small sample size.

      For the poker rooms this means more loyal customers and more rake.
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