Relevance of EV

    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      I was running above EV after 10,000 hands, continued to do so after 20,000 hands and 50,000 hands. Now I've put in something like 90,000+ hands and the gap between my Winnings line and EV keeps on increasing.

      Most of the time when I have a winning session I'm above EV and when I have a losing session I'm below EV. Now I understand how EV is calculated and what it means but my question is, shouldn't winning players most of the time be above EV?

      Think about it, ideally when you shove your AA against KK and win you're winnings line goes above EV in that session since you win more than you should have according to your preflop equity and the $EV Diff is negative.

      Similarly your AA lose to KK, your EV line goes above winnings line and the $EV Diff is positive.

      So in a losing session, provided you had bad beats, you'll be below your EV and in a winning session, provided you didn't suck out on someone, you'll be above EV. Over time if you are a winning player you'll continue to be above EV, the gaps between EV and winnings line will decrease or increase (as it has in my graph).

      So basically people who are winning and have their EV in negative are playing bad. People losing and their EV going in positive would be running very unlucky.

      But people who have a positive EV and positive winnings, well what can you say about them and how relevant is the EV/winrate comparison in their case?

  • 10 replies
    • KeepYourChip
      KeepYourChip
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.01.2011 Posts: 57
      EV is a useless concept. its way to simple to ever calculate the truthfully expected value of your play, my advice look at your actual winnings and forget about EV.
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      It doesn't matter if your a winning or a losing player, EV is just how good you run in all in spots preflop, flop and turn. It doesnt matter if you get it in with 27o or AA its just how much equity you sucked out on. Even with AA you still ''suck out'' on his 20% equity winning more then you should.

      Since your a luckbox you ran 30BI above EV, which means you have won 30BI more then you should. If you would ran bad on this same sample you could easily ran 30BI bellow EV meaning you would lose 10BI over those 90k hands just being unlucky in those all in spots.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Originally posted by MatejM47
      Since your a luckbox you ran 30BI above EV, which means you have won 30BI more then you should. If you would ran bad on this same sample you could easily ran 30BI bellow EV meaning you would lose 10BI over those 90k hands just being unlucky in those all in spots.
      Exactly my point, I'll be seen as being lucky but whats lucky about winning with my AA against KK. It just means that I'm not unlucky, doesn't mean that I'm lucky.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Everytime I go in when I'm ahead my winnings will be above my EV but I didn't get lucky cause I was ahead of my opponents when I shoved.

      My point is that if I'm below EV I might be running unlucky but if I'm rising above my EV gradually over a period of time it could mean that I'm getting it in when I have the best of it and not necessarily getting lucky all the time.
    • RainbowPonny
      RainbowPonny
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.10.2010 Posts: 562
      Ev is not accurate.

      For example.

      You have KK and know for sure villain is drawing to a flush. you bet flop and turn. River completes the flushdraw you check fold. EV will stay at 0 however you got sucked out on.(This is only my oppinion please correct me if im wrong)

      Also all in ev is not accurate in multiway pots.
      I think pokertracker had a topic about this on their site.

      Here we are:
      http://preview.pokertracker.com/blog/2011/10/the-problem-with-all-in-ev-all-in-equity
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Originally posted by maheepsangari
      Everytime I go in when I'm ahead my winnings will be above my EV but I didn't get lucky cause I was ahead of my opponents when I shoved.

      My point is that if I'm below EV I might be running unlucky but if I'm rising above my EV gradually over a period of time it could mean that I'm getting it in when I have the best of it and not necessarily getting lucky all the time.
      You are getting lucky overall. Which means that of the fictional 100 times you get your AA vs KK you win more than 80 times of the preflop allins.

      Ofc there can be many more examples like you win with your AA only 60 % instead of the 80% EV wise but you are getting dealt twice as many AA preflop (1 in 120 instead of 1 in 256). That would still mean that you're lucky even though your EV line would reflect it as being unlucky.
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Originally posted by RainbowPonny
      Ev is not accurate.

      For example.

      You have KK and know for sure villain is drawing to a flush. you bet flop and turn. River completes the flushdraw you check fold. EV will stay at 0 however you got sucked out on.(This is only my oppinion please correct me if im wrong)

      Also all in ev is not accurate in multiway pots.
      I think pokertracker had a topic about this on their site.

      Here we are:
      http://preview.pokertracker.com/blog/2011/10/the-problem-with-all-in-ev-all-in-equity
      Yes that is correct. EV is probably like 20-30% of variance at most. You can also run bad by 4bet bluffing 10 times in a row and getting shoved on everytime.

      Obviously all the hands that get to the river aren't counted in EV.

      Over the last 500k hands in my DB only 4460 we're all in on the turn or earlier. That means 495.540 hands are not counter in EV or over 99% of hands dont qualify in EV difference.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      So then back to my original question.

      Whats the point of that line.

      It doesn't tell you whether you're playing good or bad, it doesn't take into factor most of the hands that you play. You could be playing in God mode and still be below EV or above EV which completely negates its presence in the first place.

      Is it just not an excuse then to crib if you're running below EV and boast when you're above EV.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Read the article posted by RainbowPonny. Apparently it only makes sense in Heads Up Play huh. :D
    • RainbowPonny
      RainbowPonny
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.10.2010 Posts: 562
      Originally posted by MatejM47
      Originally posted by RainbowPonny
      Ev is not accurate.

      For example.

      You have KK and know for sure villain is drawing to a flush. you bet flop and turn. River completes the flushdraw you check fold. EV will stay at 0 however you got sucked out on.(This is only my oppinion please correct me if im wrong)

      Also all in ev is not accurate in multiway pots.
      I think pokertracker had a topic about this on their site.

      Here we are:
      http://preview.pokertracker.com/blog/2011/10/the-problem-with-all-in-ev-all-in-equity
      Yes that is correct. EV is probably like 20-30% of variance at most. You can also run bad by 4bet bluffing 10 times in a row and getting shoved on everytime.

      Obviously all the hands that get to the river aren't counted in EV.

      Over the last 500k hands in my DB only 4460 we're all in on the turn or earlier. That means 495.540 hands are not counter in EV or over 99% of hands dont qualify in EV difference.
      +1