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[NL2-NL10] nl10 sh call river

    • mawaykid
      Joined: 28.11.2009 Posts: 2,777
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($10.82)
      BB ($16.48)
      UTG ($10) 16/8
      Hero ($11.79)
      CO ($12.34) 42/17/1.1
      BTN ($5.64)

      Dealt to Hero 7:diamond: 7:spade:

      UTG raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($1.65) 4:spade: 2:diamond: 5:diamond:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.10, CO calls $1.10, UTG folds

      TURN ($3.85) 4:spade: 2:diamond: 5:diamond: K:heart:

      Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50

      RIVER ($8.85) 4:spade: 2:diamond: 5:diamond: K:heart: 8:spade:

      Hero checks, CO bets $2.70, Hero calls $2.70

      I think flop and turn is fine, right?
      river my doubt is vilan have missed draw 20% of the time in his range ??
      He can value bet sets(12 combos, dont count KK), str8(8 combos 56 + 16 A3) 36 combos so we need that he have 9 combos of FD right? Its is possible??

      we have so good oods :P
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795
      I think you can definitely bet 2 streets for value against a fish. He has 66/33/AX and many 5X/43s/46s and also flush draws, which outnumber the times he has a set or 88-JJ or A3.

      River is snap call, your odds are so good, not even close. I even call a half pot bet. We have 77 which blocks off 76, don't forget the King is on the board too and a passive player wouldn't value bet a hand like 68 or 78. It is also somewhat likely he raises Flop or turn with 2pair/set/straight.

      There are millions of busted flush draws and AX (2 overs+gutshot) hands which missed so this is not even close at all. He is a VPIP 42% player so the amount of suited crap he is calling you with is huge. I think he has at least 30 combos of busted FDs here.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello mawaykid,

      As long the guy could easily even have missed FDs there and never know what kind of hands he could turn into bluff I don't mind your Call there for the given odds. Nice hand!

      Best Regards.