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[NL20-NL50] NL50 FR 7/9 - 3rd nuts river play with no previous action

    • circoflax
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      Villain is pretty fishy, playing 22/7. Sample 600 hands.

      A thing that skipped my mind during hand play is:
      -villain has AF 4.3

      BB: $16.25 (32.5 bb)
      MP1: $61.50 (123 bb)
      MP2: $128.70 (257.4 bb)
      MP3: $47.75 (95.5 bb)
      CO: $53.61 (107.2 bb)
      BTN: $68.39 (136.8 bb)
      Hero (SB): $49.50 (99 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A 4
      MP1 calls $0.50, 4 folds, Hero completes, BB checks

      Flop: ($1.50) A 6 A (3 players)
      Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 checks

      Turn: ($1.50) 8 (3 players)
      Hero bets $1.25, BB folds, MP1 calls $1.25

      River: ($4) 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $10, MP1 raises to $20, Hero calls $10

      There is virtually no action before the river.

      I think my flop play is pretty much check-call, if I check-raise I'm only getting action from hands that beat me. Probably donk turn and river after that for value. Sometimes I may get 2 streets of value from a hand like 77 if I bet the flop.

      Turn is a standard bet I think, and re-evaluate if I get raised.

      Once he calls the turn, he either has an A, flush draw or some kind of pair. Maybe a boat already and he is slowplaying for whatever reason, but that is very unlikely. So I decide to overbet, because he is always calling with any A, any flush, any FH that I beat.
      My only concern is that if I overbet, I lose value from 66 and 88 that will always raise if I bet small. This was already in my mind before I bet the river, so I somewhat put in my head that he would not raise with 66 and 88 if I overbet.
      Now he min raises, which is never a bluff here. I don't think he would raise
      a flush or an A, he is sometimes raising 66 and 88, and ofc A8 and A6. I could not put him on 88 or 66 since he doesn't raise the turn to get value from my possible A. So I decide to just call.

      I think my call is a big mistake now, as I completely overlooked his AF. Had I looked at his AF on the river, I think the correct move is to always shove over his min raise. I usually don't overlook things like AF, but this time it just happened in the heat of the battle. How much value do you think I lose from not raising the river?

      Related question: Is my preflop call a mistake? I sometimes do this with Axs when a semi-fish opens from EP-MP1-MP2, especially if he has a high limp-call ratio as in this case. I don't want to play A4s OOP in a raised pot against this guy. If he limps in LP, I would raise A4s most of the time from the SB.
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello circoflax,

      Welcome to the English NL Hand Evaluation Forum! Hopefully we will see more hands from you in the future. I hope that with our help you can improve your play and as well move up the limits. We will be waiting for the next hands and till that good luck on tables!

      Preflop: Nah, I would either isolate myself here or just complete. Folding is anyways too weak with such a hand and especially against a station.

      As played
      Postflop: Well, you should already ask if you even get value from him with so big over-bet? He will have tough time with a lot weaker hands. Of course it's possible but when I do pick such a line I can't really see how we can go for 3bet for value while he could have A6/A8. Plus it's still a freeplay pot. We are anyways hoping that he overplays 66/88 here or Ax. :D

      Best Regards.