Help needed from math guys

    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Ok, so pretty soon I'll start keeping a much conservative BRM of 100 Buy Ins. I currently have a 25 BI rule. I play 4 tables at a time of NL SH.

      Ok, so when I keep 100 BIs I'll have a lot of capital on Pokerstars lying idle which I won't be using. I am thinking of withdrawing most of it and investing it in money market debt funds so that I keep earning a decent amount of interest on it. I'll treat that as part of my bankroll and as soon as I need it to play poker I'll redeem part of the funds and deposit them on stars.

      Now comes the question of how much to keep in my stars account and how much can I withdraw. Here are some stats I have

      bb/100 6.17
      Std. Dev bb/100 69.5
      Hands 105,900

      I think its safe to assume that the sample is normally distributed (please correct me if I'm wrong).

      So my interpretation is that there is a 68% probability that after 100 hands I'll be 75.67 bb up or 63.33 bb down and 95% probability that I'll be 145.27 bb up and 132.83 bb down.

      So if I take the confidence level of 95% my confidence interval is (-132.83bb<x<145.27bb). Please correct me if you feel I was wrong in any of my assumptions and if I made any calculations mistakes.

      I play a max of 2000 hands a day. How should I interpret this data and determine how many bb should I have in my account and how much can I invest so that my poker runs smoothly.
  • 5 replies
    • fruktpuff
      fruktpuff
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.09.2010 Posts: 3,982
      I would probably, personally, suggest that if you're using 25BI BRM atm, why not leave 25BI avg in your cashier, and use the 75BI on top as the "backup" BR?

      For most people, a 25BI buffer will suffice to cancel out variance over reasonable lenghts of play, and you won't need to move up/down as much as some people with the reserve of 75BI you can deposit if you hit a really bad downswing.

      Regards,
      Richard
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Hi, thanks for the reply Richard. I think 25 BIs could be a bit too conservative for me considering that my Std. Dev bb/100 is more on the lesser side. I used the Bankroll Requirement calculator at evplusplus, input my numbers and they told me that I should have about 18 BIs as my Bankroll also less cause of the Std. Dev. If I input 82bb/100 as the Std. Dev then they tell me I need 25 BIs.

      I do have up swings and downswings but they are never really that bad, or good for that matter, its quite consistent maybe cause of my playing style.

      So I'm, just trying another approach to determine an optimal figure cause the more I invest the more I earn there from my idle bankroll and the higher my net-worth increases to and better diversified I am. Right now I'm only earning from poker and would like to hedge some off that risk with other alternatives. :P
    • phantommm92
      phantommm92
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.05.2010 Posts: 1,464
      you just have to decide yourself, i would go with 25BI as fruktpuff said, some people feel good sitting with only 10 BI

      "I do have up swings and downswings but they are never really that bad, or good for that matter, its quite consistent maybe cause of my playing style. "

      this will change, unless you play like nl10, but then don't have a 100bi rule and just move up
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Originally posted by phantommm92
      you just have to decide yourself, i would go with 25BI as fruktpuff said, some people feel good sitting with only 10 BI

      "I do have up swings and downswings but they are never really that bad, or good for that matter, its quite consistent maybe cause of my playing style. "

      this will change, unless you play like nl10, but then don't have a 100bi rule and just move up
      I don't think you're quite understanding what I'm trying to do. I'm not trying to go to a 10 BI rule. I'm moving to a 100 BI rule but I'm gonna park most of my buy ins in short term liquid investments so that I'm earn some interest on those funds. It won't take me more than 24 hours to liquidate those and get them back to my pokerstars account whenever I want them. I'm just trying to reach a figure where I know how much to keep in my stars account and how much to keep in investments which I will still treat as part of my bankroll and I can move money up and down freely whenever I want.

      I'm not trying to feel good sitting with 10 BIs. I'm not gambling instead I'm being more conservative with 100 BIs and earning money on my idle money too. The question is how to determine how much of it is idle.

      And I'd be doing this at NL50. Right now I'm at NL25.
    • phantommm92
      phantommm92
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.05.2010 Posts: 1,464
      don't do this at nl25, it's just not worth it, and obv i do understand what your saying, i'm not retarded.

      my suggestion would be to move up to nl100 and then start go for a conservative BRM and invest some % of it.

      And yeah, you will have a 100bi+ for the limit you play, but if you have only 10bi in your cashier it does make some people nervous/money scared, that's why i'd keep 20-25 at least