[NL20-NL50] Raise river?

    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players


      BB: $38.02 (152.1 bb)
      MP: $25.90 (103.6 bb)
      Hero (CO): $25 (100 bb) 13/8/3.0/0.0/33/24
      BTN: $22.56 (90.2 bb)
      SB: $30.10 (120.4 bb) 25/23/1.7/0.0/60/24

      Preflop: Hero is CO with J T
      MP folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN folds, SB calls $0.65, BB folds

      Flop: ($1.75) 7 J K (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1

      Turn: ($3.75) 3 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($3.75) T (2 players)
      SB bets $2, Hero calls $2
  • 6 replies
    • KillerFishes
      KillerFishes
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      Hi maheepsangari,

      I'd go for a second barrel here. It's definitely +EV.

      As played:

      I'd make a small raise for value on the river. His range contains Jx, some Kx...
      Even though his range is from most bluffs we can get some extra value there.

      Cya
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello maheepsangari,

      As long he is a passive opponent I don't even mind the Check behind on the turn but what's the plan if he bets on blank river and it wouldn't be a T?

      As played on the river practically depends how we see the opponent and if he is capable of paying with just Kx, if you rather don't think so then I don't like even the flatting.

      Best Regards.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      I was confident that he had a Kx combo there. Every other straight draw would be a gutshot on the flop and turn. If the river was a blank and he bet then I would have folded convinced he has a Kx here.

      Why does Killerfishes think its +EV to bet on the turn? I really don't think he would call a gutshot on the flop and If he does't have a draw and calls turn then he has to have a pair and if he has a Kx then I suppose he would call the flop since its kinda harmless and let me 2nd barrell the turn.
    • KillerFishes
      KillerFishes
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      I'd second barrel because:

      1) You have very tight image.
      2) SB calling range isn't only Kx ... You will cbet this flop with high tendencies. He will definitely call: Axss,QT,88-99, flushdraw and Jx hands. AT,AQ... He has definitely some 7x hands too ofc not sure if he call them ;) ...
      3) 3 is blank and you will not continue barreling with bluffs there, because it doesn't change anything. => you have more fold equity since your second barreling range is stronger. (+ as I said before you are NIT due the stats)
      4) His range is still DRAW heavy he's OOP so we can't really expect him playing
      c/c turn and shove river with missed draws ;) => we will not be bluffed off the hand so often as we would be OOP...
      5) Doesn't matter if he's a fish or a reg ...

      With sizing like 2,5$ we need 66% FE on turn to turn it into profitable move in a second. Fish is calling lighter there, however, draws so even more +EV for you.
      And reg is folding there a lot of floats from flop so you get +EV by taking the pot down.

      Therefore, vs a fish => you can 2nd barrel for value even with higher sizing
      vs a reg you don't have to bet so big, he's folding anyway. And even if he's drawing something like QT it's ok!


      His range is capped that works for us ...



      Cya
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Ok, like your logic and agree with all your points. I'd love to know what Veriz's thoughts are on this.

      I also didn't 2nd barrel thinking that he's passive and I'm not gonna get far with trying to bluff him off with my middle pair and perhaps pot control should be the key here.

      Value betting with middle pair is still alien to me but I like the alternatives you drew up where value betting makes sense.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      The idea of betting the turn is to secure us to gain value from FD/SD and at the same time do it for free showdown. Would be difficult to Call the river and most likely we might not even do so especially with your plan that he was passive.

      Therefore either 2nd barrel the turn for protection + free showdown or just Check behind the turn and give up on river vs passive opponent.