[NL20-NL50] nl 20 river should fold?

    • asimos
      Joined: 21.07.2011 Posts: 1,415
      iPoker - £0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      Villain is 55/19/Afq:40, WTSD (33%), att to steal 39, fold to blind reraise after steal att 1/5, cbet flop 2/5, cbet turn 1/2, bet river 50%, bluff river 75% (3/4) over 103 hands.

      I don't really like my river call (bc the board paired and the flush is out there), but during the game i saw his large river bluff tendency and considering his wide range (at least preflop) i chose to call.

      Should fold this river bet?
      Should fold the turn?
      Should fold pre?

      BTN: £35.53
      SB: £24.29
      Hero (BB): £33.77

      SB posts SB £0.10, Hero posts BB £0.20

      Pre Flop: (£0.30) Hero has 7:club: K:club:

      fold, SB raises to £0.60, Hero calls £0.40

      Flop: (£1.20, 2 players) 4:spade: 5:diamond: 6:diamond:
      SB bets £1.20, Hero calls £1.20

      Turn: (£3.60, 2 players) 3:diamond:
      SB bets £3.60, Hero calls £3.60

      River: (£10.80, 2 players) 6:spade:
      SB bets £10.80, Hero calls £10.80
  • 2 replies
    • KillerFishes
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      Hi asimos,

      K7s isn't really the best hand to defend with (I'd rather 3bet/fold it pre, you have blocker and very easy decision). However, our opponent seems loose, therefore, we can count in some worse 7x and we can probably get some value on Kxx flops...

      The huge problem here, is that you're drawing with HUGE reverse implied odds. That means you have only 8 outs, however, 2 of them complete the flush and you can be even already against a straight! Every 7,3,flush on turn kills action unless your opponent has 7 too or even better hand! (78, flush)....

      For that given reason I don't mind folding flop at all. This will just cost us a lot of money. It may look weak, still the best play I'd say.

    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello asimos,

      Preflop: As long he has a wide stealing range there, goes too often to showdowns I would rather prefer to just 3bet preflop and play with our position.

      As played
      Postflop: Most likely I would just fold it right on the flop vs pot size bet. You will never know what kind of outs are clean and what not, he could already have straight, he could have FD and therefore you have to discount outs or whatsoever. Kind of overplayed your hand. :(

      And well, if you Call the turn then practically do you think he would even Bet with made flush that big?

      Best Regards.