[NL2-NL10] nl2 fr playing a flush

    • roopopper
      roopopper
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2010 Posts: 4,289
      Hello coach

      going broke here?

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
      SB ($1.98)
      BB ($2)
      UTG ($1.87)
      UTG+1 ($9.25)
      Hero ($2.22)
      BTN ($0.69)

      Dealt to Hero J:club: T:club:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02, fold, SB calls $0.01, BB checks

      FLOP ($0.08) 8:club: K:club: 2:club:

      SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.08, SB raises to $0.22, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $0.55, SB raises to $1.96 (AI), Hero calls $1.41
  • 16 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello roopopper,

      Preflop: Perfect hand to even isolate here.

      As played
      Postflop: Well, how many worse hands do you see even raising there? I doubt that he would be overplaying 2pairs in this spot:

      Board: 8:club: K:club: 2:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    63.92%  63.92%   0.00% { 88, 22, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, QcJc, AcTc, QcTc, Ac9c, Qc9c, Ac8c, Qc8c, Ac7c, Qc7c, Ac6c, Qc6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Qc5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, Qc4c, 5c4c, Ac3c, Ac2c }
      UTG+1  36.08%  36.08%   0.00% { JcTc }

      At the best we might be against sets which we hope to see. Although still the equity isn't going be very good. Therefore is the question if we even should play for the stacks or not? I be towards not and maybe at the best just flat the flop and reevaluate his actions on the turn -> but is that going to be the best play? Most likely not cause he is going to Bet again the turn and it wont change much for us. Only option to continue when he bets smallish, so that kind of plan might work out.

      Best Regards.
    • roopopper
      roopopper
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2010 Posts: 4,289
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello roopopper,

      Preflop: Perfect hand to even isolate here.

      I thought this but decided to follow the shc, I think these are the kind of spots that I should maybe start to deviate from the charts

      Thanks Veriz :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Definitely, you should have enough of postflop knowledge and even if not then you are always welcome to post the hands here to discuss about them either you played correctly or not.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897

      Board: K:club: 8:club: 2:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    54.13%  54.13%   0.00% { JcTc }
      MP3    45.87%  45.87%   0.00% { 88, 22, AcQc, Ac9c, Qc9c, Qc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Qc7c, 9c7c, Ac6c, Qc6c, 9c6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Qc5c, 9c5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, Qc4c, 7c4c, 6c4c, 5c4c, Ac3c, Qc3c, 6c3c, 5c3c, 4c3c, Qc2c, 9c2c, Ac8d, Ac8h, Ac8s, Ac2d, Ac2h, Ac2s }


      Seems to me your range is way out of whack. I didn't even add bare NFD or 2 pairs that villain might think are the nuts and play this way. He isn't even fullstack so probably a fish. Why would you ever fold here? We are definitely not a 2:1 dog when we get it in against viilain's overall range and we should definitely be ahead. I think in practice we are about 60% favourite against villain's range or more depending how much of a fish he is. If you think he limps with AQs he probably limps in with some combos of AA and KK as well and play the same, esp if AA has the NFD. We get even more equity then.

      Flatting the flop is bad if we think we are ahead of his range because there are lots of action killing cards or cards that give him could give him the best hand like any :club: , any K, any 8 and any 2. Those are 17 cards we don't want to see on turn or river because they kill us one way or another.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      If you would read my evaluation to the end you would see that I told Calling is bad.

      We need ~47% equity without excluding rake, with excluding dependent on the rake we would need ~50-52% equity here.

      Vs your given range we practically earning very small profit, I would just exclude A2 there and it would be practically a break-even spot. We have invested so small amount into the pot, therefore why would we even want to go broke? We can't be even sure that the guy plays with so wide range as you pointed out.
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      Originally posted by veriz
      Vs your given range we practically earning very small profit, I would just exclude A2 there and it would be practically a break-even spot. We have invested so small amount into the pot, therefore why would we even want to go broke? We can't be even sure that the guy plays with so wide range as you pointed out.
      True but manu allowed for this by not including all combos, only some to lower frq. He could also overplay and his range could be wider. I think manus range is somewhat realistic.

      Your range however is completely unrealistic since u included a fucking tonne of hands he can NEVER have.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      I am not saying my range is correct, cause I made it more for getting the understanding how far behind we could be if we face a very strong range. As long we don't know the opponent, we can't make exact assumptions.

      Also allowing all combos wouldn't be anyways too wide, even know it's questionable if he plays all them. I would see more realistic range and if we even keep wide range:

      Board: K:club: 8:club: 2:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    50.06%  50.06%   0.00% { 88, 22, AcQc, Ac9c, Qc9c, Qc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Qc7c, 9c7c, Ac6c, Qc6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Qc5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, Qc4c, 7c4c, 6c4c, 5c4c, Ac3c, Qc3c, 6c3c, 5c3c, 4c3c, Qc2c, Ac8d, Ac8h, Ac8s }
      UTG+1  49.94%  49.94%   0.00% { JcTc }

      And still it's at the best break-even for us. Plus do we even want to go broke with 3rd nuts just in freeplay pot? To avoid exactly such spots rather just isolate preflop and would be much easier to play the hand.

      How much EV do you expect to get in this spot, even with his realistic range our EV is just 0,086 = break-even.

      For more realistic play we would anyways need more information on the opponent, either he plays loose or plays tight or what's his overall style.
    • Castle93
      Castle93
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2011 Posts: 1,452
      i personally could never make this fold at NL2, and not at NL10either in practice
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      Even if he doesn't stack off K8 its still a reasonable assumption to think he might raise it here, calling just sucks coz of all the reasons manu mentioned. You only provide a stack off range here, if it +EV to stack off here (which it is, maybe b/e with rake or whatever) we are still making money. Alot of fish will see the mono board and raise a hand like K8 to "protect" not thinking about what to do when they get 3b. At that point he either calls folds or shoves, every option makes us money. I don't get why you just assume his only raising range is his stack off range, which we (if we consider ur range and manus range) probably flip against anyway.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well, once again if you would fully read my analyze then you would see that I wrote calling isn't an option in this specific spot. Who was even talking about Calling? Just mentioned for analyze purpose and put him into thinking.

      Well, why didn't he just lead out with K8 hands? And why my assumptions are vs very strong range here?

      a) it's a freeplay pot
      b) we don't know against whom we playing, maybe was just some 10/8 guy?
      c) we have invested only 10 cents and have only 3rd nuts
      d) we are playing for 100BB
      e) we made a mistake preflop by not isolating -> which would give us the information what we need
      f) he is c/r-ing into multiway pot -> while he could just lead out and protect his K8 or whatsoever hands

      I am not saying that I wouldn't be going broke in this spot on the flop when I would be playing myself, it would be tough to fold but we trying to get into the spot either we have even huge profit from it. At least for me freeplay pot means I have to be sure that I am far-far ahead not just lets go broke and put him on all range which he could have.

      And I did the calculations with his range.
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      Dude you must be on drugs or something. You keep assuming an unknown fish can think. Our default assumption is that he can't think. Hence not realising shit like leading his 2 pair might be better than ch/rai. He might not realise he over reps his hand with ch/rai. We just can't assume he is a thinking player. The info we have is that he doesn't have a full stack. Very unlikely to be a reg. Most likely a recreational player. Based on that we can't assume that he can hand read/think.

      FYI You actually mentioned calling in your first post
      I be towards not and maybe at the best just flat the flop and reevaluate his actions on the turn -> but is that going to be the best play? Most likely not cause he is going to Bet again the turn and it wont change much for us. Only option to continue when he bets smallish, so that kind of plan might work out.


      Which I just simply said sucks. Yeah you said it probably isn't the best play but then go on to talk about ways to continue. It's just bad anyway. You and Manu covered the reasons between you so we all agree calling is a poor option anyway.

      Whatever no point arguing over this hand.

      Your opinion is not to get all the money in.

      My opinion is that we ATLEAST flip vs his stack off range and there is a reasonable chance he can raise/fold raise/call other parts of his range, therefore we stack off.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well, I took the range what manu posted and then calculated the EV:
      How much EV do you expect to get in this spot, even with his realistic range our EV is just 0,086 = break-even.

      From you see I said 0,086 which practically is a flip. But now we have to ask ourselves if he can have worse range or stronger range. Wasn't even talking about my range, if I would take my range then we wouldn't be earning profit and it would be -EV.

      And what's with the accusing me on being drugs? Just because I think different and I am not flipping in freeplay pots? At least find a better sentence if you want to call me something. :D
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      It wasn't meant to be offensive it's a common phrase in the UK. Apologies if you got the wrong idea.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by fusionpk
      It wasn't meant to be offensive it's a common phrase in the UK. Apologies if you got the wrong idea.
      Nah, I don't take them seriously, everyone has his own opinions and is always welcome to throw out them. But something new for me as well about the phrase. :D

      And I guess you got my view of the hand why I am not going broke. I am very picky in freeplay pots while I haven't invested much. As I also said I would be most likely also going broke during the game while it's tough to fold this hand.
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      A breakeven play in this spot is making us money overall in the hand. We've already invested 5bb so a breakeven stackoff earns us 5bb more than folding does.

      And since it's an unknown NL2 player, we can safely assume he is a fish and could even add some Top pair hands into his raising range imo, you see all sorts of weird shit at that limit :)
    • Castle93
      Castle93
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2011 Posts: 1,452
      roo are you proud, your hand has got so much attention ;) probably end in a massive coach war, veriz vs. wriggers heads up for rolls :P