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[NL20-NL50] NL50 FR, do I fold turn against huuuge fish?

    • circoflax
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      Hero (BTN): $52.68 (105.4 bb)
      SB: $55.02 (110 bb)
      BB: $60.39 (120.8 bb)
      UTG+1: $47.99 (96 bb)
      UTG+2: $80.90 (161.8 bb)
      MP1: $45.45 (90.9 bb)
      MP2: $61.96 (123.9 bb)
      MP3: $54.46 (108.9 bb)
      CO: $32.89 (65.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 5 6
      2 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $2, CO folds, Hero calls $2, SB folds, BB calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50

      Flop: ($8.25) 3 4 9 (4 players)
      BB checks, MP1 bets $8.25, MP3 folds, Hero calls $8.25, BB folds

      Turn: ($24.75) T (2 players)
      MP1 bets $24.75, Hero calls $24.75

      MP1 is one of my biggest "clients" on this site, plays every day and every day like a mega fish. Stats are 32/3/0.4 AF=1.1

      On the flop I know he has something when he donks it like that. He is going to stack off if I hit my OESD + I have the backdoor too. I never consider raising this guy, because he is never folding a hand like AJ.

      On the turn I have the 15 outs, but he bets pot again, leaving 10.45$ behind. I have no fold equity against this guy, so raising is out of the question. I call because I know he is calling the last 10.45$ if I hit on the river. If I don't hit, my plan is to fold or check behind :( . I save the 10$ if I miss and get it if I hit.

      The only thing that worries me is the possibility of the dirty outs to the flush if he has a set.

      Is there anything wrong with my line?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      if you assume he has there two pair or better that he would never going to fold, even then it is questionable if you get correct odds on the turn:

      but seems like you still are ahead his made hands, so call is fine:

      board: 34s9Ts
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      5s6s 53.33% 6,477 0
      34s, T9, 33, 44, T3s 46.67% 5,667 0

      Problem is if he is bluffing and you miss your outs.
      If I add some hands his bluffing range then seems that you are favorite adn even without no fold equity I would still shove turn, since your 5 or 6 might also be live cards:

      board: 34s9Ts
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      5s6s 58.32% 18,580 0
      34s, T9, 33, 44, T3s, A2, A5 41.68% 13,276 0

      Best regards,