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[NL2-NL10] AQ, A flop with flush draw

    • MoneyDearest
      Joined: 08.05.2011 Posts: 119
      Okay, I think there are a few things I think I should finally learn :) !

      PokerStars - $0.05 NL ZOOM - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: $2.43
      SB: $2.84
      Hero (BB): $2.50
      UTG: $2.86
      UTG+1: $4.88
      UTG+2: $5.94
      MP: $3.10
      MP+1: $7.65
      CO: $5.00

      SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q:heart: A:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, MP calls $0.05, MP+1 calls $0.05, fold, BTN calls $0.05, fold, Hero raises to $0.40, MP calls $0.35, fold, fold

      Flop: ($0.92, 2 players) A:club: T:heart: 4:club:
      Hero bets $0.66, MP calls $0.66

      Turn: ($2.24, 2 players) T:diamond:
      Hero bets $1.44 and is all-in, MP calls $1.44

      River: ($5.12, 2 players) 8:diamond:

      On the turn, I guess he has a draw, air, AJ (though prob raised preflop), or something that has me beat. Do I have the equity to bet? More importantly, did i do the calcualtion right ;) ?

      For his widest range, I put:

      Board: A:club: T:heart: 4:club:  T:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    47.57%  44.77%   2.80% { AQo }
      MP3    52.43%  49.63%   2.80% { TT, 44, AJs-ATs, JTs, KcQc, QcJc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c, AJo-ATo }

      1) Does the fact I raised pre-flop mean his range might look more like this?

      Board: A:club: T:heart: 4:club: T:diamond:
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 40.69% 37.33% 3.35% { AQo }
      MP3 59.31% 55.96% 3.35% { TT, 44, AJs-ATs, JTs, KcQc, QcJc, Tc9c, AJo-ATo }

      2) When your calculating EV, do you put the range of what you think he has, or what you think he would call you with?

      Board: A:club: T:heart: 4:club:  T:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    38.28%  34.69%   3.59% { AQo }
      MP3    61.72%  58.13%   3.59% { TT, 44, AJs-ATs, JTs, Tc9c, AJo-ATo }

      3) Even taking this range, is there +EV?

      0.38*(2.24+2*1.44)-0.63*(1.44) = 1.03

      4) For calculating pot odds in a betting, not calling, situation, do you add both your bet and the potential call to the pot? (Sorry im being too lazy to look this up :p!)

      5) I'm surprised i still have 40% equity for the "dominated" range. Any easy explanation?

      Thanks very much,

  • 1 reply
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hey John,

      1) I can agree on the suited hands but he is a fish so I expect him to have some 1- & 2-gappers as well.

      I certainly dislike the allocation of Ax hands to him. AT is blocked & AJ should raise preflop. Also where is A9-A2s? Or A9o-A7o? I see a lot of people doing this with these hands

      2) I measure my EV based on my action. EV(fold) yields 0 and doesn't do anything with his range. EV(All-in) interact a lot with this range because he will obviously fold a lot of his hands (=Fold Equity) and the calling range you end up with is your Pot Equity

      You know the formula ?

      3) Your calculation is wrong in 2 places. I am only going to reveal one which is you have excluded the fold equity multplier

      4) What do you want to achieve with this? eg. Pot is 1 and I bet 0.5 . do you want to calculate what he gets (3:1 obviously :P )?

      5) Because AJs & AJo are representing a lot of combo's compared to 44 (only 3 combo's)
      It's like a country with population. Majority of country X can be Ethnicity 1 in % & Minorities are Ethinicity 2, 3, 4----infinity in %

      Best regards,