[NL20-NL50] [Sh] Nl25 44

    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Platinum
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,319
      $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players -

      CO: $30.50
      BTN: $26.25
      SB: $25.12
      BB: $21.69
      Hero (UTG): $26.02

      Pre Flop: ($0.37) Hero is UTG with 4 :spade: 4 :diamond:
      Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, SB calls $0.63, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1.75) 2 :club: 4 :club: 7 :heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB calls $1.25

      Turn: ($4.25) J :spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $3.00, SB calls $3

      River: ($10.25) K :spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $7.25, SB raises to $20.12, Hero ???


      SB (1,3k hands)
      VPIP/PFR/3bet/SBcallopen 23/18/7/5
      foldtoCbetflop/turn/river 61/33(1/3)/0(0/1)
      checkraiseflop/turn/river 5/0/13
      AFflop/turn/river 3,3/3,3/0,9
      AFqflop/turn/river 38/32/16
      WtSD/W$SD 25/56


      Herofold?
      I think his range contains only 3 hands here: 22/77/JJ. Against that, I have 33% equity, and I need 25% to make the call. The problem is that the only hand I beat is a bit less likely, because he may have raised flop/turn with 22. Or is this just overthinking?
  • 6 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello pcfmcc02,

      That's a tough spot, especially him having even kind of bigger side of W$SD and him being rather a passive player on river. Doubt that he would ever Check/Raise the river for value with AK or whatsoever type of holdings. :(

      Most likely this might be one of the spots where I might even be towards making a crying fold. Even JJ is possible. Also the problem here is that we practically even made a very big Bet there and I can't really see him bluffing.

      Also I do agree with your thoughts about him raising 22 on the flop, with 77 it may be different any he may easily even play this way. Therefore we might even exclude it and makes me to do the crying fold.

      But of course overall I would say this is one of the spots where you don't see yourself very often and during a game it will be even very difficult to fold cause we could even put him on 22 here and then we still getting the equity.

      Best Regards.
    • KillerFishes
      KillerFishes
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      Hi,

      I don't agree with veriz here at all here!
      I don't see a way to fold tbh! His play doesnt make sense even a little bit.

      He has much more bluffs here than value hands.

      My reasoning:
      1) We represent very few combos and we 3 barrel this King with all missed draws
      2) He will play for stacks on turn Or flop with monsters.
      3) You get so good odds, the call is mandatory
      4) You have the nuts in this spot.

      I just don't see possibility of folding... Omg! His range has so many no sd value combos, which he will
      Raise with..

      Cya
      KF
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      1) We represent very few combos and we 3 barrel this King with all missed draws

      How can we represent very few combos? We are UTG, the board perfectly suits for us. We could even have the Kx ourselves.

      2) He will play for stacks on turn Or flop with monsters.

      Why should he Check/Raise the turn? He will never get called from a lot worse and even overpairs will just Bet/Fold.

      3) You get so good odds, the call is mandatory

      Good odds? Did you realize that he is all-in, right? Would a guy with W$SD of 56 even bluff there?

      4) You have the nuts in this spot.

      Nuts? Definitely not, 77/JJ beats us.
    • nefarious26
      nefarious26
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 413
      this is pretty gross i think the only hand you beat here is KJc and that is clucthing abit at straws :D
    • KillerFishes
      KillerFishes
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      Hey Veriz,

      at first I'd like to thank you that you had found time to respond despite the fact you're so busy..


      How can we represent very few combos? We are UTG, the board perfectly suits for us. We could even have the Kx ourselves.


      I agree that our perceived range is much stronger than from later streets. However, it's 5max the ranges are looser. My question is what is our 3barreling range for value|bluffs at this spot from your perspective?

      Why should he Check/Raise the turn? He will never get called from a lot worse and even overpairs will just Bet/Fold.


      So you're saying he's always playing the c|c the turn with a set? :f_confused:
      Reasons why he will at least minraise:
      1) Protection
      2) Flush kills action for our OP.
      3) He has huge sample on us, so it's hard to say ... if he has some read, that we're 3barreling 100% flush when miss, he will deffo call.. However, I wouldn't say that Hero is playing like aggro monkey so for SB there is always more value in c-r ...

      Good odds? Did you realize that he is all-in, right? Would a guy with W$SD of 56 even bluff there?


      Well, sorry for my bad enligsh :f_biggrin: I meant we need to win ~25% of these situations ... In other words, we need him to shove 25% with worse ...

      Even though I don't agree with you about that c|c of his sets on the turn. I will use it now, ok?

      Let's assume he raises us on the river ONLY with sets. Ok? You agree with that, don't you?

      2(3combos),4(NO),7(3combos), JJ(3combos),
      - KK 3bets pre


      WE BEAT COMBOS | WE ARE BEATEN combos
      3 : 6

      We beat 33% of his shoving range - please notice it's VALUE range ....

      We didn't add even 1 combo of a bluff. And I could make this post even longer trying to explain why I think he has even some bluffs in his range. However, no time for that :)

      Nuts? Definitely not, 77/JJ beats us.

      Hehe, It was a little bit of hyperbole :) Still we have kind of nuts due the %Eq we need :)

      I've made my point. I'm looking forward to your response.

      Cya,
      KillerFishes
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      My question is what is our 3barreling range for value|bluffs at this spot from your perspective?

      Well, we don't even have to bluff very often here, cause on the turn we practically have the position and we can always even Check behind with something like AK or whatsoever. :) Depends a lot on the opponent. Against his one I might even Check behind on the flop cause of his low fold to CB on turn.

      Min-raising would be the worst option, what's your purpose of the raise? You said you want to protect but with min-raise you ain't protecting. :) And yes, I would most likely Check/Call with sets there with my play-style. Cause I expect him to have a very strong range which could easily even 3barrel.

      About only sets, as I pointed out already that with 22 I would most likely expect him still to Check/Raise on the flop and not slow-play that far. But that's true that if we add also 22 into his range then we have can Call as you may scroll a bit up and you will see that we also spoke about it. :P But can he even have 22 there? Would he even Check/Ship with it?