[NL2-NL10] Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #27 27.03.12

    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello PokerStrategists,

      as some of you may have heard that we have a homework in each of our No-Limit Hand Evaluation Coachings.

      Here is the homework for the coaching from March 27th, please note:

      • Everybody is invited to share his thoughts here regardless if you joined the last coaching or not.
      • Whoever is active in the homework threads can get a free database analysis by us which helps you to improve your game.

      Find the hand below waiting for you opinions and analysis posted in this thread. Furthermore do not forget to join our next coaching on Tuesday, April 3rd at 6 PM GMT.

      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1690803
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG+2: $12.40 - VPIP: 52, PFR: 30, 3B: 5, AF: 8.7, AFq: 52, fold to flop cbet: 50 (4), WTSD: 14, W$SD: 75, Hands: 69

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP2 with K :spade: K :heart:
      2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.50, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.15) 6 :club: J :diamond: 9 :club: (2 players)
      UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $0.80, UTG+2 raises to $1.60, Hero?

      What is his range in this situation?
  • 6 replies
    • Castle93
      Castle93
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2011 Posts: 1,452
      Pre flop UTG+2 limp/calls, so im putting him on low/middle PPs and Various SCs, He would probably raise with JJ and 99 with a PFR of 30

      On the flop hes c/min raised us, which is really odd, hes not really protecting a bad hand as we re never folding a draw here as we re getting great odds.

      It is possible it might be doing this with a strong draw like Q10 of clubs, for example but surely he d just donk the flop, i think his range consists of a lot of draws and some sets, and with an AF of 8.7 some Jx hands and even bad bluffs, its also possible he might have limp called with J9 as his VPIP is 50.

      With such a small raise im leaning towards a strongish draw or a Jx hand as i think he would raise more with a strong made hand, if i had the K of clubs im be more willing to call but against this guy im just 3 betting the flop with the intention of going broke
    • HansTheGreat
      HansTheGreat
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,807
      I expect his range to be wide here.
      If we put his stats into Equilab we get this limping range(44-33,K4s-K2s,Q6s-Q2s,J7s-J4s,T7s-T5s,97s-96s,86s+,75s+,65s,A6o,A4o-A2o,K8o-K4o,Q8o-Q7o,J8o-J7o,T8o-T7o,98o). Of course we can sort out all the hands that wouldn t play this way and we could add 66. Well the point that the stats could be a bit missleading because due to his AF he could easily overplay some Jx hands but his WTSD and W$SD tell as the other version of the story.
      No thing is sure we are not folding here to his Cbet. The question is are we going to call or shove. From my experience such min raises from such players represent strong hands and in this case I would call because this is the range I expect him to go with


      Board: 6:club: J:diamond: 9:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG+2  44.19%  44.19%   0.00% { 66, QJs, J9s-J7s, 96s, QcTc, JcTc, Tc8c, 8c7c, 7c5c, QJo, J9o-J7o, 96o }
      MP3    55.81%  55.81%   0.00% { KhKs }


      Of course the range can be smaller but again doesnt I have to add some TP tyoe of hands due to his AF. So we should still be ahead but it is going to be close on a lot of cards. The problem with shoving is that we are not such big favorites against his whole range but on the other site it gives us max protection. I would base my decision on what I think abou the player.
    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      It hard to say with a small sample size and no solid reads but given villains high AF and other LAG stats I would assume villain could play this way with various draws and TP type hands even with such a small sample to go on.

      I also think that villain would OR with JJ+ therefore I would exclude this hand from his range and say villains range is something like:



      Board: 6:club: J:diamond: 9:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG+2  37.11%  37.05%   0.06% { 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, QTs, T8s, 87s, KcQc, KcJc, QhJh, QsJs, QcJc, KcTc, JhTh, JsTs, JcTc, Jh9h, Js9s, Ac8c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jh8h, Js8s, Jc8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jh7h, Js7s, Jc7c, Tc7c, Jh6h, Js6s, 9d6d, 9h6h, 9s6s, Ac5c, Kc5c, Qc5c, Jh5h, Js5s, Jc5c, Tc5c, 7c5c, Ac4c, Kc4c, Qc4c, Jh4h, Js4s, Jc4c, Ac3c, Kc3c, Qc3c, Ac2c, Kc2c, Qc2c, QTo, T8o, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc, KcJh, KcJs, QdJh, QdJs, QdJc, QhJs, QhJc, QsJh, QsJc, QcJh, QcJs, JhTd, JhTs, JhTc, JsTd, JsTh, JsTc, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, Jh9d, Jh9s, Js9d, Js9h, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Jh8d, Jh8s, Jh8c, Js8d, Js8h, Js8c, Jc8d, Jc8h, Jc8s, Jh7d, Jh7s, Jh7c, Js7d, Js7h, Js7c, Jc7d, Jc7h, Jc7s }
      MP2    62.89%  62.83%   0.06% { KhKs }


      basically all draws, overplayed JX, 2 pairs and sets. I think we can 3bet the flop and go broke vs this opponent
    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      In generell UTG2 is some sort of maniac who doesn't know how to play.
      He just likes to push people out of pots.

      Since he does have quite a big PFR we can exclude every pair from his range.
      He would also raise almost all of his broadways.

      From UTG2's f2cb (even if it's a very small samplesize) we can see that he can throw away worthless hands.
      But if he has a hand, he likes to play it aggressive.

      Since he would call with almost his whole range after his limp (he came to play and wants to see at least the flop) he has a very wide weak range.

      So what does his range look like after his c/minR?

      Mostly consists of a lot of str/flush/gs draws. Some 6x,Jx,9x and the best hands possible are 2pair like J6s,J9s/o,69s which is only a very small part of his range.
      And of course we can't exclude some bluffs in his range.
    • thebaptist333
      thebaptist333
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.01.2009 Posts: 185
      I think villain has enough draws in his hand to make this an easy 3bet/ship.

      This is the range I put into equilab


      Board: J:diamond: 9:club: 6:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG+2  35.06%  35.05%   0.01% { TT-99, 77-66, J2s+, T5s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, QcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Qc9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, 9c5c, Ac4c, Kc4c, Qc4c, Tc4c, 9c4c, 8c4c, 7c4c, 6c4c, Ac3c, Kc3c, Qc3c, Tc3c, 9c3c, 8c3c, 7c3c, 6c3c, Ac2c, Kc2c, Qc2c, Tc2c, 9c2c, 8c2c, 7c2c, 6c2c, J6o+, T7o+, 97o-96o, 87o }
      MP2    64.94%  64.94%   0.01% { KhKs }


      I'd like to see this guys flop aggression stats cause you get some LAG/maniac players that try to bully on the flop with a draw or middle pair but then slow down after that; this could be why his WTSD and W$SD are what they are.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello,

      As long we know that the opponent is very loose + very aggressive we can expect him to be doing such a raise with any draws and of course even any kind of pairs/PPs or whatsoever. Against his whole range we are far head here anyways and therefore we should just consider getting it in on the flop.

      Doesn't make sense to Call the flop cause not many cards would help us there on turn rather a lot bad cards could arrive.

      Best Regards.