NL25 SH _ Correct value bets?

    • DecMate
      DecMate
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.01.2009 Posts: 939
      Party Poker $25 No Limit Hold'em - 3 players - View hand 1707669
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (SB): $77.79
      BB: $1.95
      BTN: $47.65

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with Q :club: A :diamond:
      BTN raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.75

      Flop: ($5.25) Q :heart: 3 :heart: 6 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.74, BTN calls $3.74

      Turn: ($12.73) T :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.50, BTN calls $6.50

      River: ($25.73) 7 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $14.50, BTN calls $14.50

      Villian is 19/15
  • 5 replies
    • ragney
      ragney
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      Too high on the flop
      Too low on the turn
      River is fine
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      What do you expect to get value from on the river? KQ?
    • bradomurder
      bradomurder
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,329
      tough spot, If you had his fold to 3bet stats and how often he calls down it would be easier, if he's even a bit fishy I'd bet/fold cos you could get called by QJ too. Otherwise I think I'd probably ch/f even though it seems weak. There's not many hands he would turn into a bluff other than AK with a heart that he's floated the flop or something crazy like that

      I'm often wrong though
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Its a really tough spot to evaluate since you given us such great reads. The best GTO play is to C/F river since there is almost no air in villans range and we don't expect a nl25 reg to valuebet worse or turn JJ or Tx into a bluff.

      As for getting called with worse its next to impossible to say if we don't know if his a showdown monkey and even more importantly what he thinks of you and what style you play. His calling with worse here will largly dependend on your 3bet % and your barreling tendencies. If your a nit with a 5% 3bet his never calling with worse, if your 3betting 20% in this spot his callin Qx and might even call any pair if he want to station up against you.
    • Alficor1
      Alficor1
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 7,291
      Flop and turn are ok, river is a check fold for me. Not very many hands to get value from really (unless BTN has some juicy stats like 80/10 or something) and i dont expect him to bluff here ever.