Winrate on BB & SB on FL SH

    • GreenPiece
      GreenPiece
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      Hi everyone!

      Do you have some values? Maybe, the way to get them? People from Russian forum say it should be -16BB/100 on BB & -8BB/100 on SB.
  • 19 replies
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,802
      depends on the limits i guess (higher/lower rake, more/less good regs), i'm at roughly -20BB/100 on the BB and -9BB/100 on the SB.
    • Dawnfall26
      Dawnfall26
      Black
      Joined: 30.07.2008 Posts: 3,116
      Yap,Im at -18 and -8,standard:) only two loosing positions in poker:) all others should be winning!
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,084
      This is precisely the thread I was looking for because I have the same question. My stats are (over 25k hands):

      BB: -0.13
      SB: -0.03

      This is not too shabby considering I don't play the recommended way at all in SB in SB vs BB. I don't like the practice of raising first in 60%+ in SB and can't be making such a huge mistake after all.

      EDIT: Apparantly I do like the practice of raising that much after all. I misread the stats. Or, rather, I don't like it, but still do it.

      /Johan = :f_confused:
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,802
      you are either running very lucky in the blinds or your opponents are really really bad (or both.. actually that seems most likely).
      anyhow, nice stats, if you could somehow keep that up you'd be a millionaire in no time :)
    • Aerox232
      Aerox232
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2011 Posts: 422
      I think i`m +on SB , and prety bad at BB. ;D
    • datsmahname
      datsmahname
      Global
      Joined: 23.11.2009 Posts: 1,366
      Lifetime stats 3-6 players
      -7.0 BB/100
      -14.3 BB/100
    • taavi1337
      taavi1337
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.05.2009 Posts: 2,920
      filtered to 3-6 players:

      -7.7 BB/100 on SB
      -12.8 BB/100 on BB
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,802
      you lose way way less in the blinds 3 handed than you do 6 handed.. i suggest we all filter for exactly 6 handed to get meaningful results we can compare.
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,084
      Detailed stats:

      SH (25k):
      BB: -0.13
      SB: -0.03

      Exactly 6-handed(12k):
      BB: -0.17
      SB: -0.08

      5-handed or less(13k):
      BB: -0.11
      SB: -0.01

      4-handed or less(7.5k):
      BB:-0.08
      SB:+0.01

      3-handed or less(?)
      BB:-0.08
      SB:+0.03

      Exactly 5-handed(5k):
      BB: -0.20
      SB: -0.08

      Exactly 4-handed(1.5k):
      BB:-0.08
      SB:-0.16

      Exactly 3-handed(1k):
      BB:-0.15
      SB:+0.07

      Exactly 2-handed(5k):
      BB:-0.08
      SB:+0.02

      These numbers tell me that
      1.) I suck at HU
      2.) My opponents suck at supershort-handed

      Interestingly, redskwerl never mentioned the possibility that I'm brilliant in the blinds. But, alas, he's quite correct. My opponents do suck, and I am extraordinarily lucky.

      /Johan = :f_confused:
    • datsmahname
      datsmahname
      Global
      Joined: 23.11.2009 Posts: 1,366
      @ YohanN7

      Those values seem so strange. Are you sure they're reported in BB/100? They might be right but I can't see how.


      exactly 6 players gives me
      -7.5 BB/100 in SB
      -17.5BB/100 in BB
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,084
      I took the numbers straight off from PT. They are BB per hand which is a natural measure and easy to write.

      Convention, I understand now, says multiply my number by 100 and divide the unit by 100 (BB->BB/100) to get your type of numbers. I promíse to conform to convention in the future.

      /Johan = :f_confused:
    • ipo44
      ipo44
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.04.2010 Posts: 26
      My stats at PT3 6max give me:
      13.500 hands BB= -8.54 SB= -1.44 at 0.05/0.1 limit.
      39.500 hands BB= -16.66 SB= -4.34 at 0.10/0.20 limit
    • ipo44
      ipo44
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.04.2010 Posts: 26
      Yoahan7 PTR says that you are down -7 $ in 2578hands -2.17BB/100 overall. If its you -) (PStars)
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,084
      I play at William Hill and under a screen name different from that I use here at PokerStrategy precisely for the reason that this kind of information is available to every idiot that is willing to look for it and even post it in forum threads. It happened the first time to me many years ago at the advent of Sit&Go tracking. It really isn't fun to read somebody elses findings about how badly you suck.

      I am YohanN7 at Full Tilt though. Maybe you can use that against me next time we play there.

      /Johan = :f_confused:
    • Borisian
      Borisian
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 947
      Hmmmmm I wish I never read this thread! FML! I need to redevelop my blind play.

      Overall 2.8K hands
      ---------------------
      SB
      -1.73
      BB
      -31.24 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    • Paakjis
      Paakjis
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2009 Posts: 141
      SB = -8

      BB = -24

      Thats on NL5 SH, sb is pretty good, but my bb must be down a little, but in general these numbers are ok in micros.

      great thread by the way
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,802
      Originally posted by Paakjis
      SB = -8

      BB = -24

      Thats on NL5 SH, sb is pretty good, but my bb must be down a little, but in general these numbers are ok in micros.

      great thread by the way
      this is a FL thread
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,802
      Originally posted by Borisian
      Hmmmmm I wish I never read this thread! FML! I need to redevelop my blind play.

      Overall 2.8K hands
      ---------------------
      SB
      -1.73
      BB
      -31.24 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      probably just running bad.. and you're running good on the SB :)
      i find that this stat converges very slowly, i have 100k+ hand periods where i'm +/- 5-6BB/100 from my average in the BB
    • datsmahname
      datsmahname
      Global
      Joined: 23.11.2009 Posts: 1,366
      Having less than 10k hands will lead to an error margin thats large enough where we shouldn't be to critical. For any sample size we can calculate the probability of your true winrate existing within a certain range, but with small samples it can be really wide.

      As an example, lets use either 1k or 10k hand samples and a Standard Deviation of 20 BB/100
      (Standard deviation is a measure of dispersion. You can find it in HM2 but as of now its expressed as 1/10th its actual value in HM2. I think they're going to fix that).



      With 1K hands the 95% confidence interval:

      = winrate +/- 1.96*Standard Error of the Mean
      = winrate +/- 19.6*STDEV/SQRT(SampleSize)
      = winrate +/- 1.96*20/SQRT(1000)
      = winrate +/- 1.96*0.63

      So, with 1k hands we can estimate with 95% confidence that your true winrate is within 1.23 Big Bets of the output value.

      With a 10k sample we get our winrate +/- 0.39 BB/100 with 95% confidence.

      This narrow range (10k sample) is much smaller and so while both will have a 95% accuracy as defined by our confidence interval of 95%, the larger sample is much more precise.

      Technically its going to be even a little wider than this... but i've simplified by using z-scores (the 1.96 thing).