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[NL20-NL50] Flush Draw

    • maheepsangari
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

      SB: $16.24 (101.5 bb)
      BB: $16.24 (101.5 bb) 38/33/7.0/9.1/33/87
      MP: $24.13 (150.8 bb)
      CO: $5.60 (35 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $18.77 (117.3 bb) 12/8/1.3/7.9/29/101

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q T
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.48, SB folds, BB calls $0.32

      Flop: ($1.04) T 5 K (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.64, BB raises to $1.76, Hero calls $1.12

      An aggressive opponent, could check/raise for,
      1. Protecting Top Pair
      2. Protecting Set
      3. Is on a flush draw or straight draw but likely flush draw.

      I call because I have the implied odds.

      Turn: ($4.56) 5 (2 players)
      BB bets $2.72, Hero calls $2.72

      His set would have made a full house which means he would not need to protect anymore. No point value betting and driving draws out of the hand so I don't think he has a set. He could now still be protecting top pair against draw or be on a draw himself. I think its more likely that he's trying to protect now cause 2nd barreling with a draw could be overplaying. But again he's aggressive enough to perhaps do that. Still have implied odds so I call.

      River: ($10.00) 9 (2 players)
      BB bets $6.40, Hero raises to $13.81, BB calls $4.88

      I really like the river cause it also completes the straight draw. His bet however feels like a value bet. Don't think top pair would do that cause top pair would likely block bet here or perhaps check. He could have completed a straight or a flush. So is my raise right here. He won't call with weaker hands but he could call with a lower flush or straight and his WTSD is also high.
  • 7 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795
      flop is interesting. OOP i'm definitely repopping. IP i think calling is an option.

      Turn is interesting too. Given starting positions and his LAG stats I think he reraises TT and KK preflop really often. Would he have KT? I don't know. If board was 3 low cards I probably fold turn vs a decent player cos the turn card is bad for him to be bluffing since his value range becomes narrower.

      If he never really has a boat here (1 combo of 55 only), then I suppose calling here is fine. we have some showdown value vs some flush draws and straight draws anyway.

      River is close I think. Board is paired (even though we think boats are not that likely) and we only have the second nut flush.

      I think nutflush is a raise, Q high flush is probably a close call and anything worse is probably a call or fold. If you think he defends blinds a lot with low suited connectors then I would reship. But I think he has many AX of spades as well compared to his 6s7s or 7s8s type of hands.

      You also made it 3BB from the BTN instead of 2BB so his range is definitely not so wide.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello maheepsangari,

      Turn: Actually not sure if I would even be Calling the turn anymore, calling flop is of course fine but I would rather tend to give up my hand on the turn while his range is rather for value there, he can't really represent anymore with the 5. Plus we could easily even have reversed implied odds vs either FH like TT or better A:sX hand.

      As played
      River: Obviously we ain't planning to fold our flush here, rather should be the question if we should be shipping it or not? Often times I would expect those opponents to 3bet preflop with hands like SCs which are lower. Therefore the only question is if the guy could be hero-calling vs you or not? If you think he could do that then sure, we can as well just ship it while he gets even good odds. Could also even have there something like QJ.

      Best Regards.
    • maheepsangari
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Usually I also wouldn't go beyond the turn but it was very unlikely this guy had a full house. I mean he knows I could be drawing with a flush draw why would he drive me out of that hand by raising turn and not let me complete and get more value out of it. Besides, like mbml said, KK,TT he would have 3-Bet pre-flop. He 3-Bets 7% so thats definitely in his 3-Betting range.

      Would you say that he's trying to protect his top pair or perhaps even two pair like KT against a flush draw? Honestly I thought thats what he was trying to do or was on a draw himself.

      In retrospect I don't really like my raise on the river anymore. I think I should have just called him and kept the pot small cause there's so much uncertainty about this hand.
    • maheepsangari
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      I was discussing this hand on my blog and I got the opinion that I could have shoved on the flop itself. This is the reason that was given.

      Board: K:spade: 5:spade: T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      CO     42.21%  41.98%   0.23% { 55, KTs, AsQs, AsJs, QsJs, As9s, Js9s, As8s, Js8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KTo, QJo }
      BU     57.79%  57.56%   0.23% { QsTs }

      I'd love to have suggestions from both of you if I could. Also mbml why would you 3-Bet OOP?
    • maheepsangari
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      My reasoning for calling instead of shoving goes like this

      If I 3-Bet him that would mean I am doing two things, protecting my pair against a flush or straight draw or semi bluffing against a top pair or set with my flush draw. My hand isn't good enough to protect and not even good enough to semi-bluff shove. If I try to break down the situations.

      1. He has a TP and is protecting, I 3-Bet he folds.
      2. He has a straight draw, I 3-Bet he folds.
      3. He has a flush draw weaker than mine, I 3-Bet he probably folds.
      4. He has the nut flush draw, I 3-Bet he could fold or shove(he hasn't put in enough and could walk away from a nut flush draw I think.)
      5. He has a set/2 pair, I 3-Bet he shoves.

      I'm clearly isolating myself against the best hands. The only situation where I win is if he has an A :spade: x :spade: and he shoves and doesn't make a flush and I win because of my T pair.

      So my plan after calling is,

      Say he Checks Turn
      I check turn and take a cheap look at river. If I make a flush I go ahead or I fold if he bets river. I got such amazing odds to play my flush draw.

      Say he Bets Turn
      I call if I get the right price and see If I make my flush on the river.

      Say no matter what he does on the turn he checks river
      If I make my flush I bet but if I don't I just check cause no point trying to bluff him off the river for obvious reasons, weak hands fold anyway and strong hands call.

      I utilize the position to be able to get one street free if I can while chasing my draw.

      So I feel by calling the flop I lose the least amount of money and have the potential to win the most amount of money.
    • CallumN
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      If the river bricks off I actually think you should call. his value range is super narrow and you block KT/TT

      As played is fine.

      I try and get it in on the flop though
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Didn't pay much attention even on the Flop, vs that kind of opponent I would even be happy to 3bet and get it in. His Check/Raising range could contain a lot worse hands and maybe even worse draws. He has a very wide range and seems to be playing like a maniac. Our equity should be very strong there vs his overall range.