[NL20-NL50] TP+OESD Flop Shove

    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players


      UTG: $16.72 (104.5 bb) 58/26/3.0/0.0/20/19
      MP: $16.97 (106.1 bb)
      Hero (CO): $16.48 (103 bb) 14/11/1.5/8.8/14/88
      BTN: $9.91 (61.9 bb)
      SB: $6.24 (39 bb)
      BB: $35.28 (220.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with K Q
      UTG calls $0.16, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.64, BTN calls $0.64, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.48

      Flop: ($2.16) J T K (3 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.33, BTN raises to $2.66, UTG folds, Hero raises to $15.68, BTN calls $6.61 and is all-in

      Turn: ($20.70) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($20.70) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
  • 5 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      no info on villain? such a tough spot

      Pre: I like your iso 3bet vs the whale
      Flop: Villain should have TT/JJ/AQ fairly often. If he's flatting broadways like this pretty often he shouldn't really have K9 so you are only beating QJ/QT and losing to AK/sets/AQ. I guess you are doing ok against JT/KJ/KT since you have outs to the straight and the queen but you are still behind.

      on the other hand he's a shortie and might be a complete spazz. I can't say for sure what's the best play.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello maheepsangari,

      We would need ~39% equity here with rake included, if we took out also rake then it would be even bigger equity needed. For example even against a wide range:

      Board: K:heart: J:club: T:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    57.84%  48.74%   9.10% { QQ-TT, AJs+, K8s+, QJs, Q9s, JTs, AQo+, KTo+, QJo, Q9o, JTo }
      UTG+1  42.16%  33.06%   9.10% { KdQc }

      we still get practically a break-even spot here. But what makes me wonder here if he would even even play draws like this. I would often expect him to ship with draws and also gain the fold equity. Therefore might even be towards Bet/Fold on such a board.

      If you would give some information on the opponent then we could maybe make some other assumptions.

      Best Regards.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Really sorry messed up the stats there. The stats I posted for UTG are actually the stats for BTN.

      Reposting the stats and hand

      UTG: $16.72 (104.5 bb) 45/7/4.2/3.6/18/71
      MP: $16.97 (106.1 bb)
      Hero (CO): $16.48 (103 bb) 14/11/1.5/8.8/14/88
      BTN: $9.91 (61.9 bb) 58/26/3.0/0.0/20/19
      SB: $6.24 (39 bb)
      BB: $35.28 (220.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with K Q
      UTG calls $0.16, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.64, BTN calls $0.64, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.48

      Flop: ($2.16) J T K (3 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.33, BTN raises to $2.66, UTG folds, Hero raises to $15.68, BTN calls $6.61 and is all-in

      Turn: ($20.70) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($20.70) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Originally posted by veriz
      But what makes me wonder here if he would even even play draws like this. I would often expect him to ship with draws and also gain the fold equity. Therefore might even be towards Bet/Fold on such a board.
      Actually I don't see any reason why he'd play anything like this with a stupid min raise. I mean when he min raised I knew he was an idiot. If he has a made hand with say AQ he needs to protect the shit out of that hand against flush draws or even split pots with a same straight which might happen by turn or river.

      If he has a set he needs to protect it even more against straight and flush draws. I think this board had protection written all over it with whatever hand you have.

      So this super loose aggressive whale's raise doesn't make any sense and seems like a weak attempt to steal the pot from me. Besides he has a mid stack, he's so loose and doesn't seem to know how to play so I shoved and actually expected him to call and roll over a weak K pair or even J or T wouldn't surprise me.

      As you said its a break even situation but I think his range can be a whole lot wider than this. What do you think?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well, I didn't have the stats earlier. :D But yes, that's true that with his VPIP it could be true and might even be a case where we could get it in.