All-in EV line heading south

    • Cylindrus
      Cylindrus
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2011 Posts: 19
      Played about 30 1$ Sng`s today and my all-in EV line dropped to -45 buy-ins. The line had been a little under brake even for about 150 games before today.

      Why is this happening? Am I just making bad pushes/calls?

      I have been running quite good today though

      Edit: The EV line says I should be down 37 buy-ins today, even though I just have played 32.. How is this possible?

      Or am I just misunderstanding what's the EV line is telling me?
  • 11 replies
    • PaTaPaTaPoNn
      PaTaPaTaPoNn
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 99
      Interesting... Waiting for pro reply as well.
    • Spungeh
      Spungeh
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.06.2011 Posts: 1,212
      If your using HEM2, then dont expect to understand it, ever.
    • Cylindrus
      Cylindrus
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2011 Posts: 19
      Originally posted by Spungeh
      If your using HEM2, then dont expect to understand it, ever.
      Yes, I am using HM2... I find this very strange
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Originally posted by Cylindrus
      Played about 30 1$ Sng`s today and my all-in EV line dropped to -45 buy-ins. The line had been a little under brake even for about 150 games before today.

      Why is this happening? Am I just making bad pushes/calls?

      I have been running quite good today though

      Edit: The EV line says I should be down 37 buy-ins today, even though I just have played 32.. How is this possible?

      Or am I just misunderstanding what's the EV line is telling me?

      Hi, Cylindrus!

      Nice to see you in our forums. 150 games, or 200 games, or even 500 games is a meaningless sample. Don't try to make huge conclusions out of it. However, we should always aim to improve our game, double check spots we are unsure about, post hands in the evaluation forum, watch videos, play with ICM trainer or SnG Wiz etc. Improvement is a never ending process.


      Why don't you rather post some push/fold hands in our SnG evaluation forum. This is the one that fits your requirements- Click, so our handjudges can share their professional opinion


      Why is this happening? Could be just variance, could be bad play, could be both. It is good that you ask yourself these questions though as this is the first step of getting better at poker.


      As for how is it possible to play 32 SnG and be 37 BI under EV wise-well, I think that, if let's say we stack off early in the tournament with KK vs AA, we are like 4:1 underdog, which means we should be .8 BI behind. We, however, spike a K on the board and win. Later in the tournament, we put our money in another big minus EV situation, but spike one of our few outs once again and win. That will add up to more than 1 BI behind EV wise. I also believe that risk aversion(say bubble big stack vs big stack) plays role. F.e we and other other big stack are sitting in the blinds, both have about 10bb. Small stack is sitting in the CO(utg) with 1.5bb. SB(other big stack) pushes and we call with 22 hoping that we flip. This BE call will turn into a huge equity looser as we are super risk-averse vs the other bigstack and we put our almost 100% finish ITM in danger. If I am wrong, however, please correct me. Very interesting question though!
    • Cylindrus
      Cylindrus
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2011 Posts: 19
      I know 150 games is a meaningless sample. I just didn't understand why it suddenly dropped so fast.

      But thank you kurrkabin! Now I understand a bit more on how the EV-line works
    • Toothless32
      Toothless32
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.01.2011 Posts: 210
      I play HU sngs and hem 2 will always show my results above ev before restarting the programme...If it still shows you weird EV line, even after restarting, try to update .... Should help
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Originally posted by Cylindrus
      I know 150 games is a meaningless sample. I just didn't understand why it suddenly dropped so fast.

      But thank you kurrkabin! Now I understand a bit more on how the EV-line works
      Np, man. Feel welcome to post any question you have about SnGs. It's good to use our brains for something productive.
    • th3rac00n
      th3rac00n
      Silver
      Joined: 13.08.2007 Posts: 1,567
      I've recently seen a video (understanding the red line line) made by Greg Jones. He states in the video that the red and the green line will converge in the long run. I've been playing 30 man mtsngs on Ongame for months. Would you please take a look at my graph and tell me if this only means that I have a very unlucky time and these lines will converge in the long run or this graph is perfectly normal?






      A képet a Képfeltöltés.hu tárolja. http://www.kepfeltoltes.hu
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Hi, th3rac00n! :) Nice to see the colleges around here.

      I will,however, ask you to forward your question to the tournament section as it covers MTSNGs for 27+ players. There is the link: Click.

      I am sure they can give you a better answer. Good luck!

      Cheers.
    • danjef
      danjef
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.06.2010 Posts: 80
      Originally posted by Cylindrus
      Originally posted by Spungeh
      If your using HEM2, then dont expect to understand it, ever.
      Yes, I am using HM2... I find this very strange
      Yea HM2 seems to have a huge problem with the EV line mine messes up all the time but fixes once i restart HM2, however i know some people's that don't fix at all.

      So i wouldn't rely on it to much maybe try it in HM1 if you have that?

      Hopefully they get this fixed in HM2 soon its really annoying!
    • lycoreus
      lycoreus
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2012 Posts: 223
      i have the same problem with HM2 :( Apart from that i was wondering how should the all in ev line look like after 2000 of a winning player?