[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 T8s facing river 3bet

    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -

      Hero (CO): $54.05
      BTN: $88.20
      SB: $85.65
      BB: $51.20
      UTG: $66.36
      MP: $85.68

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with 8 :spade: T :spade:
      1 fold, MP calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, MP calls $1.50

      Flop: ($4.75) 9 :spade: K :spade: T :club: (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $3.50, MP calls $3.50

      Turn: ($11.75) A :club: (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero checks

      River: ($11.75) J :spade: (2 players)
      MP bets $5.00, Hero raises to $18.50, MP raises to $34, Hero ???


      MP (217 hands)
      VPIP/PFR 47/13
      foldtoCbetflop/turn 50/50(3/6)
      AFflop/turn/river 1,4/10,5/7
      AFqflop/turn/river 31/49/48
      WtSD/W$SD 24/53


      Betting the turn would be better? I've checked behind, because of having some showdown value added to the draw, and I dont want to be checkraised out of the pot.
      On the river he can donk the flush, but the straight as well, so I raised for value here. After him donking and me raising, his min3bet (instead of putting me allin) seemed quite strong to me. I'm nut sure he's capable of such move without the nuts, his WtSD/W$SD stats are quite solid (small sample though). Is herofolding too paranoid here?
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello pcfmcc02,

      The problem is that our range is anyways there towards flush more often with our Check behind. Therefore I really have doubt him raising there as bluff or Qx. :( Therefore might be a spot for Raise/Crying-Fold for me. But of course if we are able to do that. :D

      Best Regards.
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Thanks veriz!
      It's good to see, that you would also be toward crying fold, because i did fold there, but it was really painful to do that... :D
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      VPIP/PFR 47/13

      AFqflop/turn/river 31/49/48

      Closer to a jam then a fold imo
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      What about a 2nd barrel here?

      Just gave him a range in equilab where he calls the flop with.

      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 9sKsTcAc
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 49.20% 46.07% 3.13% { K8s-K2s, Q9s, J9s-J8s, T8s-T6s, 87s, Qs8s, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9s8s, As7s, Qs7s, Js7s, 9d7d, 9h7h, As6s, Qs6s, Js6s, 9d6d, 9h6h, 8s6s, 7s6s, As5s, Qs5s, Js5s, As4s, Qs4s, As3s, Qs3s, As2s, A9o, KTo-K5o, QTo-Q9o, J8o+, T8o, 98o }
      MP3 50.80% 47.67% 3.13% { Ts8s }

      Some hands like 97 I just gave him 2 combo's of it...

      So we have about 50% OTT en with some FE we have a +ev 2nd barrel? + we build the pot already for when we hit the river.

      Or isn't it good because he will sometimes raise us?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Guess we could even consider 2nd barreling there but the problem is that then we have to Bet/Fold it most likely. :( But that's true that this could be one of the great cards to even 2nd barrel.